Big Lots Stock Market Value

BIG
 Stock
  

USD 22.27  0.33  1.46%   

Big Lots' market value is the price at which a share of Big Lots stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Big Lots investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Big Lots and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Big Lots over a given investment horizon. Continue to Big Lots Hype Analysis, Big Lots Correlation, Big Lots Valuation, Big Lots Volatility, as well as analyze Big Lots Alpha and Beta and Big Lots Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big Lots will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.37
Market Capitalization
653.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.15
Return On Assets
0.017
Return On Equity
0.0642
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big Lots that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Big Lots value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Big Lots 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Big Lots' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Big Lots.
0.00
05/29/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
06/28/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Big Lots on May 29, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Big Lots or generate 0.0% return on investment in Big Lots over 30 days. Big Lots is related to or competes with Macys, Bed Bath, CVS Corp, Boqii Holding, Home Depot, JP Morgan, and Caterpillar. Big Lots, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a home discount retailer in the United StatesMore

Big Lots Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Big Lots' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Big Lots upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Big Lots Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Big Lots' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Big Lots' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Big Lots historical prices to predict the future Big Lots' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Big Lots in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.5623.2527.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.0428.1532.84
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
18.8223.5028.19
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
37.0046.0054.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big Lots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big Lots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big Lots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Big Lots.

Big Lots Backtested Returns

Big Lots secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.15, which signifies that the company had -0.15% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Big Lots exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Big Lots mean deviation of 3.47, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.19) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.3609, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Big Lots's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Big Lots will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Big Lots historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy in foreseeing any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Big Lots exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Big Lots has an expected return of -0.68%. Please be advised to confirm Big Lots coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and downside variance to decide if Big Lots performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.48  

Modest reverse predictability

Big Lots has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Big Lots time series from 29th of May 2022 to 13th of June 2022 and 13th of June 2022 to 28th of June 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Big Lots price movement. The serial correlation of -0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Big Lots price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.48
Spearman Rank Test0.09
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.61

Big Lots lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Big Lots stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Big Lots' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Big Lots returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Big Lots stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
Share
      Timeline 

Big Lots regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Big Lots stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Big Lots stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Big Lots stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Big Lots Lagged Returns

When evaluating Big Lots' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Big Lots stock have on its future price. Big Lots autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Big Lots autocorrelation shows the relationship between Big Lots stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Big Lots.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Big Lots without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Pair Trading with Big Lots

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Big Lots position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Big Lots will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Big Lots Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Big Lots could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Big Lots when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Big Lots - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Big Lots to buy it.
The correlation of Big Lots is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Big Lots moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Big Lots moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Big Lots can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Big Lots Hype Analysis, Big Lots Correlation, Big Lots Valuation, Big Lots Volatility, as well as analyze Big Lots Alpha and Beta and Big Lots Performance. Note that the Big Lots information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Big Lots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Big Lots Stock analysis

When running Big Lots price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Big Lots technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Big Lots technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Big Lots trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...