Brown Stock Market Value

BF-B
 Stock
  

USD 70.40  0.40  0.56%   

Brown Forman's market value is the price at which a share of Brown Forman stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Brown Forman investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Brown Forman and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Brown Forman over a given investment horizon. Continue to Brown Forman Hype Analysis, Brown Forman Correlation, Brown Forman Valuation, Brown Forman Volatility, as well as analyze Brown Forman Alpha and Beta and Brown Forman Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Please note, there is a significant difference between Brown Forman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Brown Forman value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brown Forman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Brown Forman 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Brown Forman's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Brown Forman.
0.00
07/17/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 21 days
07/07/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Brown Forman on July 17, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Brown Forman or generate 0.0% return on investment in Brown Forman over 720 days. Brown Forman is related to or competes with Procter Gamble, Steelcase, JM Smucker, Spectrum Brands, Walmart, JP Morgan, and Merck. Brown-Forman Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, an...More

Brown Forman Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Brown Forman's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Brown Forman upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Brown Forman Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Brown Forman's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Brown Forman's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Brown Forman historical prices to predict the future Brown Forman's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brown Forman's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Brown Forman in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
68.5070.2972.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
63.3680.9682.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
68.9470.7372.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
64.2668.5972.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Brown Forman. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Brown Forman's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Brown Forman's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Brown Forman.

Brown Forman Backtested Returns

We consider Brown Forman very steady. Brown Forman secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0391, which signifies that the company had 0.0391% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Brown Forman, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Brown Forman Downside Deviation of 1.94, mean deviation of 1.23, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0783 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0699%.
Brown Forman has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.8585, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Brown's beta means in this case. Brown Forman returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Brown Forman is expected to follow. Although it is important to respect Brown Forman historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Brown Forman technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0699% will be sustainable into the future. Brown Forman right now shows a risk of 1.79%. Please confirm Brown Forman standard deviation, information ratio, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the variance and jensen alpha to decide if Brown Forman will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.18  

Very weak predictability

Brown Forman has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Brown Forman time series from 17th of July 2020 to 12th of July 2021 and 12th of July 2021 to 7th of July 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Brown Forman price movement. The serial correlation of 0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current Brown Forman price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.18
Spearman Rank Test-0.07
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance5.97

Brown Forman lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Brown Forman stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Brown Forman's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Brown Forman returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Brown Forman stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Brown Forman regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Brown Forman stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Brown Forman stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Brown Forman stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Brown Forman Lagged Returns

When evaluating Brown Forman's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Brown Forman stock have on its future price. Brown Forman autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Brown Forman autocorrelation shows the relationship between Brown Forman stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Brown Forman.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Brown Forman Investors Sentiment

The influence of Brown Forman's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Brown. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Brown Forman's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Brown. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Brown can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Brown Forman. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Brown Forman's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Brown Forman's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Brown Forman's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Brown Forman.

Brown Forman Implied Volatility

    
  0.43  
Brown Forman's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Brown Forman stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Brown Forman's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Brown Forman stock will not fluctuate a lot when Brown Forman's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Brown Forman in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Brown Forman's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Brown Forman options trading.

Current Sentiment - BF-B

Brown Forman Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Brown Forman. What is your opinion about investing in Brown Forman? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Brown Forman

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Brown Forman position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Brown Forman will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Brown Forman Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Brown Forman could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Brown Forman when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Brown Forman - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Brown Forman to buy it.
The correlation of Brown Forman is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Brown Forman moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Brown Forman moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Brown Forman can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Brown Forman Hype Analysis, Brown Forman Correlation, Brown Forman Valuation, Brown Forman Volatility, as well as analyze Brown Forman Alpha and Beta and Brown Forman Performance. Note that the Brown Forman information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Brown Forman's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Brown Stock analysis

When running Brown Forman price analysis, check to measure Brown Forman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brown Forman is operating at the current time. Most of Brown Forman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brown Forman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brown Forman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brown Forman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Brown Forman technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Brown Forman technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Brown Forman trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...