American Stock Market Value

AXP
 Stock
  

USD 134.91  2.88  2.09%   

American Express' market value is the price at which a share of American Express stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of American Express investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of American Express and determine expected loss or profit from investing in American Express over a given investment horizon. Please continue to American Express Correlation, American Express Volatility and American Express Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Express.
Symbol


Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Express value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

American Express 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Express' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Express.
0.00
08/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 1 day
10/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in American Express on August 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Express or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Express over 60 days. American Express is related to or competes with Paypal Holdings. American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-r... More

American Express Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Express' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Express upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

American Express Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Express' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Express' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Express historical prices to predict the future American Express' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Express in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
133.12134.95136.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
121.42166.70168.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
125.65127.48129.31
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
151.00190.75233.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Express.

American Express Backtested Returns

American Express secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0209, which signifies that the company had -0.0209% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. American Express exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm American Express mean deviation of 1.41, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.018168) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.3564, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what American's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Express will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to American Express historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy in foreseeing any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. American Express exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. American Express has an expected return of -0.0383%. Please be advised to confirm American Express maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the information ratio and expected short fall to decide if American Express performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.56  

Modest predictability

American Express has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Express time series from 2nd of August 2022 to 1st of September 2022 and 1st of September 2022 to 1st of October 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Express price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current American Express price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.56
Spearman Rank Test-0.04
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance67.57

American Express lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is American Express stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Express' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Express returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Express stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

American Express regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Express stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Express stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Express stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

American Express Lagged Returns

When evaluating American Express' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Express stock have on its future price. American Express autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Express autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Express stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Express.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

American Express Implied Volatility

    
  44.96  
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Express in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Express' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Express options trading.

Pair Trading with American Express

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Express

+0.8MCDMcDonalds Corp TrendingPairCorr
+0.93DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to American Express Correlation, American Express Volatility and American Express Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Express. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running American Express price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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American Express technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Express technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Express trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...