Global Mutual Fund Market Value

AGBGX -  USA Fund  

USD 9.39  0.02  0.21%

Global Bond's market value is the price at which a share of Global Bond stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Global Bond Fund investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Global Bond Fund and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Global Bond over a given investment horizon. Please continue to Global Bond Hype Analysis, Global Bond Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Global Bond Volatility, as well as analyze Global Bond Alpha and Beta and Global Bond Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Bond's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Global Bond value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Bond's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Global Bond 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Global Bond's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Global Bond.
0.00
04/21/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
05/21/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Global Bond on April 21, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Global Bond Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Global Bond over 30 days. Global Bond is related to or competes with Vanguard Total, and Pimco International. Under normal market conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in bonds

Global Bond Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Global Bond's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Global Bond Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Global Bond Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Global Bond's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Global Bond's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Global Bond historical prices to predict the future Global Bond's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Bond's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Global Bond in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.089.399.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.4510.3110.62
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Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.119.439.74
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Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.299.519.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Global Bond. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Global Bond's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Global Bond's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Global Bond Fund.

Global Bond Fund Backtested Returns

Global Bond Fund holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.26, which attests that the entity had -0.26% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards determining the risk of any fund is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Global Bond Fund exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check out Global Bond market risk adjusted performance of 3.93, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.36) to validate the risk estimate we provide.
The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0221, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Global's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Global Bond are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Global Bond is likely to outperform the market. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Global Bond Fund current price history, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current price movements. Our philosophy towards determining any fund's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Global Bond Fund exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.30  

Below average predictability

Global Bond Fund has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Global Bond time series from 21st of April 2022 to 6th of May 2022 and 6th of May 2022 to 21st of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Global Bond Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current Global Bond price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.3
Spearman Rank Test-0.69
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.0

Global Bond Fund lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Global Bond mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Global Bond's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Global Bond returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Global Bond mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Global Bond regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Global Bond mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Global Bond mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Global Bond mutual fund over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Global Bond Lagged Returns

When evaluating Global Bond's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Global Bond mutual fund have on its future price. Global Bond autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Global Bond autocorrelation shows the relationship between Global Bond mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Global Bond Fund.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Global Bond Investors Sentiment

The influence of Global Bond's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Global. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Global Bond in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Global Bond's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Global Bond options trading.

Current Sentiment - AGBGX

Global Bond Fund Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Global Bond Fund. What is your judgment towards investing in Global Bond Fund? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Global Bond

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Global Bond position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Global Bond will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Global Bond Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Global Bond could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Global Bond when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Global Bond - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Global Bond Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Global Bond is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Global Bond moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Global Bond Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Global Bond can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Global Bond Hype Analysis, Global Bond Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Global Bond Volatility, as well as analyze Global Bond Alpha and Beta and Global Bond Performance. Note that the Global Bond Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Global Bond's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for Global Mutual Fund analysis

When running Global Bond Fund price analysis, check to measure Global Bond's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Bond is operating at the current time. Most of Global Bond's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Bond's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Bond's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Bond to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Global Bond technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Global Bond technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Global Bond trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...