Advance Stock Market Value

AAP -  USA Stock  

USD 196.07  14.18  7.80%

Advance Auto's market value is the price at which a share of Advance Auto stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Advance Auto Parts investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Advance Auto Parts and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Advance Auto over a given investment horizon. Please continue to Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Volatility, as well as analyze Advance Auto Alpha and Beta and Advance Auto Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advance Auto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Advance Auto 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Advance Auto's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Advance Auto.
0.00
01/22/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 30 days
05/22/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Advance Auto on January 22, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Advance Auto Parts or generate 0.0% return on investment in Advance Auto over 120 days. Advance Auto is related to or competes with Genuine Parts, and National Vision. Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domest...

Advance Auto Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Advance Auto's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Advance Auto Parts upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Advance Auto Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Advance Auto's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Advance Auto's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Advance Auto historical prices to predict the future Advance Auto's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
179.76182.35184.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
163.70202.46205.05
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00255.77290.00
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Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.5011.8712.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Advance Auto Parts Backtested Returns

Advance Auto Parts secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0599, which signifies that the company had -0.0599% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Advance Auto Parts exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Advance Auto Parts mean deviation of 1.86, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.1385, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Advance's beta means in this case. Advance Auto returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Advance Auto is expected to follow. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Advance Auto Parts historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards foreseeing any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Advance Auto Parts exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Advance Auto Parts has an expected return of -0.15%. Please be advised to confirm Advance Auto Parts variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and semi variance to decide if Advance Auto Parts performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.25  

Poor predictability

Advance Auto Parts has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Advance Auto time series from 22nd of January 2022 to 23rd of March 2022 and 23rd of March 2022 to 22nd of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Advance Auto Parts price movement. The serial correlation of 0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Advance Auto price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.25
Spearman Rank Test0.17
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance97.19

Advance Auto Parts lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Advance Auto stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Advance Auto's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Advance Auto returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Advance Auto stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Advance Auto regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Advance Auto stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Advance Auto stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Advance Auto stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Advance Auto Lagged Returns

When evaluating Advance Auto's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Advance Auto stock have on its future price. Advance Auto autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Advance Auto autocorrelation shows the relationship between Advance Auto stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Advance Auto Parts.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Advance Auto Investors Sentiment

The influence of Advance Auto's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Advance. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

    
  62.97  
Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Advance Auto in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Advance Auto's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Advance Auto options trading.

Current Sentiment - AAP

Advance Auto Parts Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Advance Auto Parts. What is your sentiment towards investing in Advance Auto Parts? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Advance Auto

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advance Auto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advance Auto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Advance Auto Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advance Auto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advance Auto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advance Auto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advance Auto Parts to buy it.
The correlation of Advance Auto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advance Auto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advance Auto Parts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advance Auto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Volatility, as well as analyze Advance Auto Alpha and Beta and Advance Auto Performance. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto Parts price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Advance Auto technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Advance Auto technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Advance Auto trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...