MerVal (Argentina) Market Value

MERV -  Argentina Index  

 88,119  515.36  0.58%

MerVal's market value is the price at which a share of MerVal stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of MerVal investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of MerVal and determine expected loss or profit from investing in MerVal over a given investment horizon. Check out MerVal Hype Analysis, MerVal Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, MerVal Volatility, as well as analyze MerVal Alpha and Beta and MerVal Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between MerVal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine MerVal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MerVal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

MerVal 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MerVal's index what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MerVal.
0.00
04/22/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
05/22/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in MerVal on April 22, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MerVal or generate 0.0% return on investment in MerVal over 30 days.

MerVal Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MerVal's index current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MerVal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

MerVal Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MerVal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MerVal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MerVal historical prices to predict the future MerVal's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of MerVal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of MerVal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
88,11788,11988,121
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
84,59284,59496,931
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MerVal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MerVal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MerVal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in MerVal.

MerVal Backtested Returns

MerVal has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0147, which conveys that the entity had -0.0147% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any index is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. MerVal exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away.
The index secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what MerVal's beta means in this case. the returns on MARKET and MerVal are completely uncorrelated. Even though it is essential to pay attention to MerVal price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any index's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. MerVal exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.69  

Very good reverse predictability

MerVal has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MerVal time series from 22nd of April 2022 to 7th of May 2022 and 7th of May 2022 to 22nd of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MerVal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current MerVal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.69
Spearman Rank Test-0.39
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance6327476.94

MerVal lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is MerVal index's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MerVal's index expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MerVal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MerVal index has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

MerVal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MerVal index is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MerVal index is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MerVal index over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

MerVal Lagged Returns

When evaluating MerVal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MerVal index have on its future price. MerVal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MerVal autocorrelation shows the relationship between MerVal index current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MerVal.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

MerVal Investors Sentiment

The influence of MerVal's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in MerVal. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MerVal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MerVal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MerVal options trading.

Current Sentiment - MERV

MerVal Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis investors are at this time bullish on MerVal. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Argentina companies? Are you bullish or bearish on MerVal?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Check out MerVal Hype Analysis, MerVal Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, MerVal Volatility, as well as analyze MerVal Alpha and Beta and MerVal Performance. Note that the MerVal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MerVal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Other Tools for MerVal Index

When running MerVal price analysis, check to measure MerVal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MerVal is operating at the current time. Most of MerVal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MerVal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MerVal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MerVal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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