DOW Index Market Value

DJI -  USA Index  

 35,912  201.81  0.56%

DOW's market value is the price at which a share of DOW stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of DOW investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of DOW and determine expected loss or profit from investing in DOW over a given investment horizon. Check out DOW Hype Analysis, DOW Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, DOW Volatility, as well as analyze DOW Alpha and Beta and DOW Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between DOW's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine DOW value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DOW's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

DOW 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to DOW's index what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of DOW.
0.00
03/23/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 9 months and 28 days
01/17/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in DOW on March 23, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding DOW or generate 0.0% return on investment in DOW over 300 days.

DOW Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure DOW's index current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess DOW upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

DOW Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for DOW's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as DOW's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use DOW historical prices to predict the future DOW's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DOW's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DOW in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
35,91135,91235,913
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35,66135,66139,503
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
35,36035,36135,362
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
35,77036,26236,755
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DOW. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DOW's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DOW's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DOW.

DOW Backtested Returns

DOW secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0345, which denotes the index had 0.0345% of return per unit of volatility over the last 24 months. Our approach towards predicting the volatility of an index is to use all available market data together with index-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for DOW, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the entity.
The index shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what DOW's beta means in this case. the returns on MARKET and DOW are completely uncorrelated. Although it is extremely important to respect DOW historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The approach towards predicting future performance of any index is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By evaluating DOW technical indicators, you can now evaluate if the expected return of 0.06% will be sustainable into the future.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
   0.38   

Below average predictability

DOW has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between DOW time series from 23rd of March 2021 to 20th of August 2021 and 20th of August 2021 to 17th of January 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of DOW price movement. The serial correlation of 0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current DOW price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.38
Spearman Rank Test0.55
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance504727.43

DOW lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is DOW index's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting DOW's index expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of DOW returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that DOW index has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
Share
      Timeline 

DOW regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If DOW index is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if DOW index is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in DOW index over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

DOW Lagged Returns

When evaluating DOW's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of DOW index have on its future price. DOW autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, DOW autocorrelation shows the relationship between DOW index current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in DOW.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

DOW Investors Sentiment

The influence of DOW's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in DOW. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DOW in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DOW's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DOW options trading.

Current Sentiment - DJI

DOW Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis investors are at this time bullish on DOW. What is your opinion about investing in USA companies? Are you bullish or bearish on DOW?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Check out DOW Hype Analysis, DOW Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, DOW Volatility, as well as analyze DOW Alpha and Beta and DOW Performance. Note that the DOW information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other DOW's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Other Tools for DOW Index

When running DOW price analysis, check to measure DOW's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DOW is operating at the current time. Most of DOW's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DOW's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DOW's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DOW to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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