Paychex Stock Story

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PAYX
 Stock
  

USD 135.61  3.54  2.68%   

By Vlad Skutelnik
Macroaxis Story
Whilst many millenniums are getting more into industrials space, it makes sense to break down Paychex against current trends within the economy. As expected, Paychex is starting to reaffirm its true potential as investors are becoming more and more confident in the future outlook. A lot of the movements of the company stock price movements has been a reflection of what is happening in the market overall. Strong basic indicators of the company may also suggest signals of long term gains for Paychex investors. Paychex is scheduled to announce its earnings today.
Published over a month ago
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Is Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) about to rebound?

The company's average rating is Hold from 16 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Paychex market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Paychex. Let us look at a few aspects of Paychex technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Paychex. In general, we focus on analyzing Paychex stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Paychex's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Paychex's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Paychex, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Paychex price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paychex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Paychex in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
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Intrinsic
Valuation
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Naive
Forecast
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16 Analysts
Consensus
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Paychex. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Paychex's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Paychex's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Paychex.

How does Paychex Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Paychex competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Paychex across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Paychex Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Paychex, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Paychex exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Paychex insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Paychex insider trading alert for general transaction of stock option by Pamela Joseph, the corporate stakeholder, on 9th of August 2022. This event was filed by Paychex Inc with SEC on 2022-07-19. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Details

Paychex has a beta of 1.2217. Let's try to break down what Paychex's beta means in this case. Paychex returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Paychex is expected to follow. The beta indicator helps investors understand whether Paychex moves in the same direction as the rest of the market, and how volatile (i.e., risky) it is compared to the market (i.e., selected benchmark). In other words, if Paychex deviates very little from the market, it does not add much risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn't increase the expected returns.
Paychex price slide over the last few months may encourage investors to take a closer look at the company as it is trading at a share price of 122.43 on 2,321,508 in trading volume. The company management teams were not very successful in positioning the company resources to exploit market volatility in May. However, diversifying your holdings with Paychex or similar stocks can still protect your portfolio during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 1.96. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for longer-term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.

Our perspective of the current Paychex rise

Variance is down to 3.84. It may suggest a possible volatility slide.
As of the 29th of June, Paychex holds the risk adjusted performance of (0.045757), and Coefficient Of Variation of (2,922). Compared to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows you to check existing technical drivers of Paychex, as well as the relationship between them. Put it differently, you can use this information to find out if the company will indeed mirror its model of past market data, or the prices will eventually revert. We have analyzed and interpolated nineteen technical drivers for Paychex, which can be compared to its competitors. Please check Paychex standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis to decide if Paychex is priced some-what accurately, providing market reflects its current price of 122.43 per share. Given that Paychex has jensen alpha of 0.1351, we recommend you to check out Paychex's recent market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

The Current Takeaway on Paychex Investment

While other entities in the staffing & employment services industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Paychex may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 90 days horizon, it may be a good time to drop some or all of your Paychex holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Paychex.

Editorial Staff

Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Paychex. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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