Should you exit Janus International (NYSE:JBI) after the current volatility rise?


USD 8.79  0.18  2.01%   

Janus International is generating 0.1915% of daily returns assuming volatility of 2.6288% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. While many risk-averse stockholders are getting carried away by overanalyzing industrials space, it is reasonable to concentrate on Janus International Group. We will evaluate if the latest Janus International price volatility suggests a bounce in September. Janus International's low volatility may still impact the value of the stock as we estimate it as currently undervalued. The real value, based on our analysis, is getting close to 14.45 per share.
Published over a month ago
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Janus International Group has roughly 26.63 M in cash with 74.05 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.18.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Janus International or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Janus International may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Janus's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Janus International and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Janus International fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Janus International's Liquidity

Janus International financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Janus International Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Janus International financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Janus International's total debt and its cash.

How does Janus utilize its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Janus International, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Janus International is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Janus International cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.

Acquisition by Harding Heather of 8547 shares of Janus International subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Janus International insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Janus insider trading alert for grant of common stock by Harding Heather, the corporate stakeholder, on 7th of July 2022. This event was filed by Janus International Group with SEC on 2022-07-07. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down Janus International Further

The modest gains experienced by current holders of Janus International Group may raise some interest from stockholders. The stock closed today at a share price of 11.64 on 905,330 in trading volume. The company executives have been quite successful in maneuvering the stock at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in July. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 2.63. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in July 2022 as well as with Janus International Group unsystematic, company-specific events.

Will Janus International growth be reasonable after the rise?

Janus International current treynor ratio boosts over 0.56. Janus International Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.13 and Jensen Alpha of 0.43. However, we advise investors to further question Janus International Group expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Janus International's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Janus International's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Janus International Implied Volatility

Janus International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Janus International Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Janus International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Janus International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Janus International's options are near their expiration.

While some companies under the building products & equipment industry are still a bit expensive, Janus International may offer a potential longer-term growth to stockholders. To conclude, as of the 16th of August 2022, we see that Janus International almost mirrors the market. The company is undervalued with below average probability of distress within the next 24 months. Our up-to-date 90 days buy-hold-sell advice on the company is Strong Buy.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Janus International Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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