United Probability Of Bankruptcy

UPS
 Stock
  

USD 190.19  0.46  0.24%   

United Parcel Service Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. United Parcel Service Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting United Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the United balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Also, please take a look at United Parcel Piotroski F Score and United Parcel Altman Z Score analysis.
  
United Parcel Net Income Per Employee is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. United Parcel reported last year Net Income Per Employee of 24,139. As of 12/01/2022, Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is likely to grow to about 21.8 B, while Average Assets are likely to drop slightly above 32.6 B.

United Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

United Parcel's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity6.5333.011.361.39
Interest Coverage11.9410.9618.4618.23
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current United Parcel Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  10%  
Most of United Parcel's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, United Parcel Service is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of United Parcel probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting United Parcel odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of United Parcel Service financial health.
Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
Market Capitalization
159.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
77.13
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Parcel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

United Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for United Parcel is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since United Parcel's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of United Parcel's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of United Parcel's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, United Parcel Service has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 10.0%. This is 76.51% lower than that of the Air Freight & Logistics sector and significantly higher than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 74.89% higher than that of the company.

United Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses United Parcel's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of United Parcel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Parcel by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
United Parcel is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

United Parcel Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets11.4510.048.232.2319.5621.1
Gross Margin76.8174.1676.0975.6873.9583.3
Total Liabilities44.4 B46.99 B54.59 B61.75 B55.15 B46.19 B
Current Liabilities12.71 B14.09 B15.41 B17.02 B17.57 B14.01 B
Total Assets45.4 B50.02 B57.86 B62.41 B69.41 B55.57 B
Current Assets15.55 B16.21 B17.1 B20.22 B24.93 B26.9 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.48 B12.71 B8.64 B10.46 B15.01 B16.19 B
Weighted Average Shares871 M866 M864 M867 M874 M986.7 M
Weighted Average Shares Diluted875 M870 M869 M871 M878 M992.37 M

United Parcel ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, United Parcel's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to United Parcel's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score
Governance Score
Social Score

United Fundamentals

About United Parcel Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze United Parcel Service's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of United Parcel using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of United Parcel Service based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. United Parcel operates under Integrated Freight Logistics classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 500000 people.

United Parcel Investors Sentiment

The influence of United Parcel's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in United. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to United Parcel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Parcel Service. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
United Parcel's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for United Parcel's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average United Parcel's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on United Parcel.

United Parcel Implied Volatility

    
  46.97  
United Parcel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Parcel Service stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Parcel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Parcel stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Parcel's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards United Parcel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, United Parcel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from United Parcel options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at United Parcel Piotroski F Score and United Parcel Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running United Parcel Service price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
Market Capitalization
159.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
77.13
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Parcel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.