Progressive Beneish M Score

PGR
 Stock
  

USD 120.46  0.43  0.36%   

This module uses fundamental data of Progressive Corp to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Progressive Corp M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please check Progressive Corp Piotroski F Score and Progressive Corp Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Progressive Corp Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Progressive Corp reported last year Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities of 1.26 Billion. As of 08/11/2022, Debt to Equity Ratio is likely to grow to 0.34, while Long Term Debt is likely to drop slightly above 3.9 B. Progressive Corp Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Progressive Corp reported last year Asset Turnover of 0.71. As of 08/11/2022, Debt to Equity Ratio is likely to grow to 0.34, while Dividends per Basic Common Share is likely to drop 1.20.
At this time, it appears that Progressive Corp is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Progressive Corp's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Progressive Corp executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Progressive Corp's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-3.08
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.0Focus
Asset QualityN/AFocus
Expense Coverage0.78Focus
Gross Margin Strengs0.97Focus
Accruals Factor0.78Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.19Focus
Net Sales Growth1.08Focus
Financial Leverage Condition0.98Focus

Progressive Corp Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Progressive Corp's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues51.5 B47.7 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense6.6 B7.8 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations8.4 B7.8 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion239.9 M301.8 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets76.7 B71.1 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments32.2 B38.6 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net1.3 B1.3 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables11.8 B10.9 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities57.1 B52.9 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt4.2 B5.1 B
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income3.2 B3.8 B
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.280.29
Sufficiently Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile

Progressive Corp Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Progressive Corp's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Progressive Corp in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Progressive Corp's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Progressive Corp Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Operating Expenses

6.72 Billion

Progressive Corp Operating Expenses is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Progressive Corp reported last year Operating Expenses of 7.97 Billion

Progressive Corp Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Progressive Corp. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Trade and Non Trade Receivables4.19 B4.68 B7.9 B9.5 B10.93 B11.79 B
Revenues26.84 B31.98 B39.02 B42.66 B47.7 B51.47 B
Total Assets38.7 B46.58 B54.9 B64.1 B71.13 B76.75 B
Property Plant and Equipment Net1.04 B1.18 B1.12 B1.13 B1.3 B1.27 B
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion150.5 M199.5 M236.1 M262.4 M301.76 M239.89 M
Selling General and Administrative Expense4.36 B4.84 B5.61 B6.77 B7.78 B6.57 B
Total Liabilities29.42 B35.75 B41.22 B47.06 B52.9 B57.08 B
Total Debt2.71 B3.15 B3.31 B4.4 B5.07 B4.18 B
Operating Income2.05 B1.61 B2.29 B3.33 B3.83 B3.15 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations3.76 B6.28 B6.26 B6.91 B7.76 B8.37 B
Investments20.94 B23.48 B27.27 B33.57 B38.6 B32.19 B

Progressive Corp ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Progressive Corp's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Progressive Corp's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score
Governance Score
Social Score

About Progressive Corp Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Progressive Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Progressive Corp using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Progressive Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio. Progressive Corp operates under InsuranceProperty Casualty classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 49077 people.

Progressive Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Progressive Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Progressive. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Progressive Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Progressive. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Progressive can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Progressive Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Progressive Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Progressive Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Progressive Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Progressive Corp.

Progressive Corp Implied Volatility

    
  15.0  
Progressive Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Progressive Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Progressive Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Progressive Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Progressive Corp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Progressive Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Progressive Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Progressive Corp options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Progressive Corp Piotroski F Score and Progressive Corp Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Progressive Stock analysis

When running Progressive Corp price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.79
Market Capitalization
70.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.032
Return On Assets
0.0135
Return On Equity
0.0496
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Progressive Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.