Natural Beneish M Score

NHTC -  USA Stock  

USD 7.28  0.04  0.55%

This module uses fundamental data of Natural Hlth to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Natural Hlth M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Additionally, see Natural Hlth Piotroski F Score and Natural Hlth Altman Z Score analysis.

Natural Beneish M Score 

 
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The current year Debt Current is expected to grow to about 1.1 M, whereas Total Debt is forecasted to decline to about 4.5 M. Natural Hlth Calculated Tax Rate is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 39.08. The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 114.69, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 73.74.
At this time, it appears that Natural Hlth Trd is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Natural Hlth's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Natural Hlth executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Natural Hlth's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.81
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables
0.73
Asset Quality
N/A
Expense Coverage
0.97
Gross Margin Strengs
1.02
Accruals Factor
0.97
Depreciation Resistance
1.0
Net Sales Growth
1.45
Financial Leverage Condition
1.11

Natural Hlth Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Natural Hlth's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues81.1 M55.9 M
Way Up
Increasing
Stable
Selling General and Administrative Expense71.6 M51.1 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Stable
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.7 M1.7 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion2.4 M2.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets84.9 M95.3 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net5.3 M4.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables129.7 K123 K
Notably Up
Increasing
Stable
Total Liabilities33.9 M34.4 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets79.7 M89.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current6.8 M7.1 M
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities22.1 M19.4 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Stable
Liabilities Non Current18.6 M19.2 M
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt4.5 M4.5 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current1.1 MM
Significantly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current2.9 M3.2 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income617.9 K602.1 K
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Gross Margin66.5665.37
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile

Natural Hlth Trd Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Natural Hlth's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Natural Hlth in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Natural Hlth's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Natural Hlth Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

2.41 MillionShare
Natural Hlth Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 2.23 Million

Natural Hlth Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Natural Hlth. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues197.56 M191.91 M77.61 M62.07 M55.86 M81.12 M
Total Assets159.55 M157.92 M118.5 M105.94 M95.35 M84.87 M
Current Assets151.24 M150.19 M108.38 M99.74 M89.77 M79.69 M
Assets Non Current8.31 M7.73 M10.12 M6.2 M7.13 M6.84 M
Property Plant and Equipment Net1.15 M934 K3.87 M4.28 M4.93 M5.32 M
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion536 K424 K2.15 M1.94 M2.23 M2.41 M
Selling General and Administrative Expense115.86 M118.81 M62.77 M44.41 M51.07 M71.6 M
Total Liabilities68.93 M68.06 M43.43 M38.24 M34.42 M33.92 M
Current Liabilities41.92 M43.08 M26.3 M21.51 M19.36 M22.1 M
Liabilities Non Current27.01 M24.98 M17.13 M16.74 M19.25 M18.55 M
Operating Income43.06 M33.73 M(7.02 M)669 K602.1 K617.95 K
Net Cash Flow from Operations26.61 M29.71 M(18.64 M)1.89 M1.7 M1.74 M
Gross Margin80.4479.4974.172.6365.3766.56

About Natural Hlth Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Natural Hlth Trd's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Natural Hlth using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Hlth Trd based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Natural Health Trends Corp., a direct-selling and e-commerce company, provides personal care, wellness, and lifestyle products under the NHT Global brand. Natural Health Trends Corp. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong. Natural Hlth is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.

Natural Hlth Investors Sentiment

The influence of Natural Hlth's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Natural. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Natural Hlth Implied Volatility

    
  54.34  
Natural Hlth's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Hlth Trd stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Hlth's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Hlth stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Hlth's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Hlth in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Hlth's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Hlth options trading.

Current Sentiment - NHTC

Natural Hlth Trd Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Natural Hlth Trd. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Natural Hlth Trd? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, see Natural Hlth Piotroski F Score and Natural Hlth Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Natural Hlth Trd information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Hlth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Natural Hlth Trd price analysis, check to measure Natural Hlth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Hlth is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Hlth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Hlth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Hlth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Hlth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Hlth's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Hlth. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Hlth listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Hlth Trd is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Hlth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Hlth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Hlth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Hlth's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Hlth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Hlth value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Hlth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.