Murphy Probability Of Bankruptcy

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 292.40  3.60  1.25%   

Murphy USA Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Murphy USA Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Murphy Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Murphy balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Additionally, see Murphy USA Piotroski F Score and Murphy USA Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Murphy USA Revenue Per Employee is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Revenue Per Employee was at 1.19 Million. The current year Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is expected to grow to about 880.2 M, whereas Net Income Per Employee is forecasted to decline to about 24.3 K.

Murphy Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Murphy USA's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Consolidated Income154.8 M386.1 M396.9 M350 M
Direct Expenses12.91 B9.82 B15.51 B16.39 B
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Murphy USA Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  1%  
Most of Murphy USA's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Murphy USA is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Murphy USA probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Murphy USA odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Murphy USA financial health.
Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.33
Market Capitalization
6.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.38
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.83
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Murphy Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Murphy USA is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Murphy USA's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Murphy USA's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Murphy USA's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Murphy USA has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 1.0%. This is 97.58% lower than that of the Consumer Cyclical sector and 96.27% lower than that of the Specialty Retail industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 97.49% higher than that of the company.

Murphy Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Murphy USA's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Murphy USA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy USA by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Murphy USA is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Murphy USA Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets11.19.116.1314.3711.7910.42
Asset Turnover5.86.125.564.185.166.49
Gross Margin8.287.588.0312.8110.658.79
Total Debt880.8 M863.3 M1.04 B1.14 B2.22 B2.4 B
Total Liabilities1.59 B1.55 B1.88 B1.9 B3.24 B3.5 B
Current Liabilities533.35 M478.1 M505 M531.1 M675.3 M577.27 M
Total Assets2.33 B2.36 B2.69 B2.69 B4.05 B4.37 B
Current Assets614.29 M570.1 M710.8 M625.2 M767.8 M671.97 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations283.62 M398.7 M313.3 M563.7 M737.4 M795.62 M
Weighted Average Shares35.82 M32.67 M31.59 M29.13 M26.21 M35.09 M
Weighted Average Shares Diluted36.16 M32.98 M31.86 M29.53 M26.6 M35.48 M

Murphy Fundamentals

About Murphy USA Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Murphy USA's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Murphy USA using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Murphy USA based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. Murphy USA operates under Specialty Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 6245 people.

Murphy USA Investors Sentiment

The influence of Murphy USA's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Murphy. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Murphy USA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy USA. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Murphy USA's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Murphy USA's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Murphy USA's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Murphy USA.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Murphy USA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Murphy USA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Murphy USA options trading.

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Additionally, see Murphy USA Piotroski F Score and Murphy USA Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Murphy USA price analysis, check to measure Murphy USA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy USA is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy USA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy USA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy USA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy USA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.33
Market Capitalization
6.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.38
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.83
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.