Moderna Beneish M Score

MRNA
 Stock
  

USD 159.56  4.02  2.58%   

This module uses fundamental data of Moderna to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Moderna M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Additionally, see Moderna Piotroski F Score and Moderna Altman Z Score analysis.
  
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Moderna Total Debt is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Debt was at 705 Million. The current year Debt Non Current is expected to grow to about 760.7 M, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to (143.7 M). Moderna PPandE Turnover is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 24.02. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 124.42, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is forecasted to decline to 0.0349.
At this time, it appears that Moderna is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Moderna's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Moderna executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Moderna's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.47
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.0Focus
Asset Quality1.0Focus
Expense Coverage1.0Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.0Focus
Accruals Factor1.0Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.0Focus
Net Sales Growth1.08Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.0Focus

Moderna Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Moderna's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues19.9 B18.5 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense611.8 M567 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations14.7 B13.6 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion250.3 M232 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets26.6 B24.7 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments11.6 B10.7 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Current4.2 B3.9 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Non Current7.4 B6.9 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net1.5 B1.4 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables3.4 B3.2 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities11.4 B10.5 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets17.3 B16.1 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current9.3 B8.6 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities9.8 B9.1 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current1.5 B1.4 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt760.7 M705 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current760.7 M705 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income14.3 B13.3 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.860.858
Slightly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile

Moderna Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Moderna's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Moderna in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Moderna's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Moderna Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

250.32 Million

Moderna Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 232 Million

Moderna Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Moderna. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues205.82 M135.07 M60 M803 M18.47 B19.93 B
Total Assets1.08 B1.96 B1.59 B7.34 B24.67 B26.62 B
Current Assets783.22 M1.56 B1.13 B6.3 B16.07 B17.34 B
Assets Non Current301.27 M399.14 M460.62 M1.04 B8.6 B9.28 B
Total Liabilities459.19 M431.91 M414.61 M4.78 B10.52 B11.35 B
Current Liabilities191.46 M222.8 M143.12 M4.39 B9.13 B9.85 B
Total Debt15.69 M33.49 M132.36 M207 M705 M760.66 M
Debt Non Current15.69 M33.49 M132.36 M207 M705 M760.66 M
Operating Income(269.36 M)(413.27 M)(546 M)(763 M)13.3 B14.35 B
Investments778.82 M1.05 B1.04 B2.63 B10.73 B11.58 B
Investments Current621.17 M863.06 M867.12 M1.98 B3.88 B4.19 B

About Moderna Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Moderna's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Moderna using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Moderna based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States and internationally. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Moderna operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2700 people.

Moderna Investors Sentiment

The influence of Moderna's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Moderna. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Moderna's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Moderna. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moderna can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moderna. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Moderna's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Moderna's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Moderna's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Moderna.

Moderna Implied Volatility

    
  79.61  
Moderna's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moderna stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moderna's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moderna stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moderna's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Moderna in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Moderna's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Moderna options trading.

Current Sentiment - MRNA

Moderna Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Moderna. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Moderna? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Additionally, see Moderna Piotroski F Score and Moderna Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Moderna information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moderna's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis

When running Moderna price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.02
Market Capitalization
63.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
2.13
Return On Assets
0.5
Return On Equity
1.4
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moderna value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.