Ford Probability Of Bankruptcy

F
 Stock
  

USD 11.81  0.23  1.91%   

Ford Motor Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Ford Motor Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Ford Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Ford balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Please check Ford Piotroski F Score and Ford Altman Z Score analysis.
  
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Ford Revenue Per Employee is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Revenue Per Employee was at 745,033. The current year Average Assets is expected to grow to about 266 B, whereas Average Equity is forecasted to decline to about 36.1 B.

Ford Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Ford's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Interest Expense1.02 B1.65 B1.8 B1.57 B
Gross Profit11.73 B5.79 B16.44 B15.2 B
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Ford Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  52%  
Most of Ford's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Ford Motor is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Ford probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Ford odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Ford Motor financial health.
Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.25
Market Capitalization
47.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.048
Return On Assets
0.0227
Return On Equity
0.29
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ford value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Ford Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Ford is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Ford's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Ford's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Ford's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Ford Motor has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 52%. This is 25.63% higher than that of the Consumer Cyclical sector and 13.71% higher than that of the Auto Manufacturers industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 30.55% lower than that of the firm.

Ford Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Ford's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Ford could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ford by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Ford is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Ford Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets0.0190.0310.014(0.005)0.070.0755
Asset Turnover0.630.620.60.480.540.56
Total Debt154.29 B154.21 B155.31 B161.68 B138.09 B150.46 B
Total Liabilities222.79 B220.47 B225.31 B236.45 B208.41 B226.23 B
Current Liabilities94.6 B95.57 B98.13 B97.19 B90.73 B101.41 B
Total Assets258.5 B256.54 B258.54 B267.26 B257.04 B268.93 B
Current Assets116.8 B114.65 B114.05 B116.74 B109 B122.07 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations18.1 B15.02 B17.64 B24.27 B15.79 B17.29 B
Weighted Average Shares3.98 B3.97 B3.97 B3.97 B3.99 B4.38 B

Ford Fundamentals

About Ford Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Ford Motor's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Ford using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ford Motor based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford trucks, cars, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan. Ford operates under Auto Manufacturers classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 183000 people.

Ford Investors Sentiment

The influence of Ford's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Ford. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Ford Implied Volatility

    
  53.01  
Ford's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ford Motor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ford's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ford stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ford's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ford in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ford's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ford options trading.

Current Sentiment - F

Ford Motor Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Ford Motor. What is your opinion about investing in Ford Motor? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Please check Ford Piotroski F Score and Ford Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Ford Motor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Ford Stock analysis

When running Ford Motor price analysis, check to measure Ford's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ford is operating at the current time. Most of Ford's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ford's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ford's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ford to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.25
Market Capitalization
47.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.048
Return On Assets
0.0227
Return On Equity
0.29
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ford value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.