National Probability Of Bankruptcy

EYE -  USA Stock  

USD 26.08  0.52  2.03%

National Vision Holdings Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. National Vision Holdings Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting National Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the National balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Continue to National Vision Piotroski F Score and National Vision Altman Z Score analysis.
  
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National Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

National Vision's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2010 2016 2022 (projected)
Cost of Revenue904.78 M544.78 M762.93 M
Consolidated Income128.24 M13.34 M74.52 M
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current National Vision Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  41%  
Most of National Vision's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, National Vision Holdings is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of National Vision probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting National Vision odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of National Vision Holdings financial health.
Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

National Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for National Vision is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since National Vision's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of National Vision's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of National Vision's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, National Vision Holdings has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 41.0%. This indicator is about the same for the Consumer Cyclical average (which is currently at 41.39) sector and 52.87% higher than that of the Specialty Retail industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 2.94% lower than that of the firm.

National Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses National Vision's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of National Vision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Vision by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
National Vision is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

National Fundamentals

About National Vision Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze National Vision Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of National Vision using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Vision Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia. National Vision operates under Specialty Retail classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 12792 people.

National Vision Investors Sentiment

The influence of National Vision's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in National. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

National Vision Implied Volatility

    
  84.4  
National Vision's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Vision Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Vision's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Vision stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Vision's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Vision in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Vision's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Vision options trading.

Current Sentiment - EYE

National Vision Holdings Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on National Vision Holdings. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in National Vision Holdings? Are you bullish or bearish?
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98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with National Vision

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Vision position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Vision will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

National Vision Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Vision could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Vision when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Vision - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Vision Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of National Vision is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Vision moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Vision Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Vision can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to National Vision Piotroski F Score and National Vision Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.