Constellium Beneish M Score

CSTM
 Stock
  

USD 12.30  0.15  1.20%   

This module uses fundamental data of Constellium to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Constellium M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Continue to Constellium Piotroski F Score and Constellium Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Constellium Debt Non Current is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Debt Non Current is estimated at 1.88 Billion. Debt to Equity Ratio is expected to hike to 17.06 this year, although the value of Total Debt will most likely fall to nearly 2.1 B. Constellium Enterprise Value over EBITDA is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Enterprise Value over EBITDA is estimated at 6.06. Free Cash Flow per Share is expected to hike to 1.05 this year, although the value of EBITDA Margin will most likely fall to 0.1.
At this time, it appears that Constellium Nv is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Constellium's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Constellium executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Constellium's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.34
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables0.98Focus
Asset Quality1.06Focus
Expense Coverage1.09Focus
Gross Margin Strengs0.93Focus
Accruals Factor1.09Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.03Focus
Net Sales Growth0.97Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.05Focus

Constellium Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Constellium's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense272.7 M258 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
RevenuesB6.2 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables704.6 M738 M
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Stable
Property Plant and Equipment Net1.7 B1.9 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income522.2 M484 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations313.9 M357 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current2.7 B2.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities1.5 B1.7 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities4.3 B4.3 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Non Current12.3 M12 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Stable
Investments Current59.6 M58 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Stable
Investments88.8 M70 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Stable
Gross Margin0.10.108
Significantly Down
Decreasing
Stable
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion229 M267 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current1.9 B1.9 B
Slightly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current235.8 M283 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt2.1 B2.2 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current2.5 B2.7 B
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets1.8 B1.9 B
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets4.3 B4.6 B
Notably Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Constellium Nv Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Constellium's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Constellium in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Constellium's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Constellium Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

228.99 Million

Constellium Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is estimated at 228.99 Million

Constellium Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Constellium. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues5.24 B5.69 B5.91 B4.88 B6.15 B5.98 B
Total Assets3.71 B3.9 B4.18 B4.13 B4.62 B4.33 B
Current Assets1.4 B1.44 B1.35 B1.47 B1.94 B1.85 B
Assets Non Current2.31 B2.46 B2.83 B2.66 B2.69 B2.48 B
Total Liabilities4.03 B4.01 B4.27 B4.23 B4.33 B4.26 B
Current Liabilities1.11 B1.14 B1.27 B1.09 B1.71 B1.53 B
Total Debt2.19 B2.24 B2.42 B2.48 B2.16 B2.12 B
Debt Current129 M117 M236 M138 M283 M235.79 M
Debt Non Current2.06 B2.12 B2.18 B2.34 B1.88 B1.88 B
Operating Income338 M404 M255 M125 M484 M522.21 M
Investments180 M105 M30 M57 M70 M88.79 M
Investments Current69 M30 M22 M39 M58 M59.63 M

About Constellium Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Constellium Nv's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Constellium using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Constellium Nv based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Constellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products for the packaging, aerospace, and automotive end-markets. Constellium SE was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Paris, France. Constellium operates under Aluminum classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 10800 people.

Constellium Investors Sentiment

The influence of Constellium's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Constellium. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Constellium's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Constellium. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Constellium can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Constellium Nv. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Constellium's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Constellium's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Constellium's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Constellium.

Constellium Implied Volatility

    
  8.43  
Constellium's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Constellium Nv stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Constellium's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Constellium stock will not fluctuate a lot when Constellium's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Constellium in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Constellium's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Constellium options trading.

Pair Trading with Constellium

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Constellium position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Constellium will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Constellium could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Constellium when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Constellium - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Constellium Nv to buy it.
The correlation of Constellium is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Constellium moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Constellium Nv moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Constellium can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Constellium Piotroski F Score and Constellium Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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When running Constellium Nv price analysis, check to measure Constellium's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Constellium is operating at the current time. Most of Constellium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Constellium's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Constellium's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Constellium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Constellium's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Constellium. If investors know Constellium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Constellium listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.35
Market Capitalization
1.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0418
Return On Equity
0.54
The market value of Constellium Nv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Constellium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Constellium's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Constellium's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Constellium's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Constellium's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Constellium's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Constellium value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Constellium's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.