Alibaba Probability Of Bankruptcy

BABA -  USA Stock  

USD 82.34  0.13  0.16%

Alibaba Group Holding Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Alibaba Group Holding Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Alibaba Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Alibaba balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Continue to Alibaba Group Piotroski F Score and Alibaba Group Altman Z Score analysis.
  
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Alibaba Group Average Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Average Assets were at 1.76 Trillion. The current year Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is expected to grow to about 261.5 B, whereas Enterprise Value is forecasted to decline to about 571.5 B.

Alibaba Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Alibaba Group's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Cost of Revenue282.37 B421.2 B484.39 B522.63 B
Consolidated Income140.35 B143.28 B164.78 B177.79 B
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Alibaba Group Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  32%  
Most of Alibaba Group's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alibaba Group Holding is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alibaba Group probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alibaba Group odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alibaba Group Holding financial health.
Is Alibaba Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alibaba Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Alibaba Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Alibaba Group is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Alibaba Group's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Alibaba Group's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Alibaba Group's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Alibaba Group Holding has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 32.0%. This is 22.69% lower than that of the Consumer Cyclical sector and significantly higher than that of the Internet Retail industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 19.66% higher than that of the company.

Alibaba Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alibaba Group's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Alibaba Group is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Alibaba Group Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets0.210.0940.10.120.0980.0882
Asset Turnover0.30.340.390.430.470.41
Gross Margin0.660.620.570.450.410.37
Total Debt125.55 B134.3 B125.43 B149.15 B171.53 B136.97 B
Total Liabilities277.69 B349.67 B433.33 B606.58 B697.57 B752.64 B
Current Liabilities135.81 B207.67 B241.87 B377.36 B433.96 B468.22 B
Total Assets717.12 B965.08 B1,312.98 B1,690.22 B1,943.75 B2,097.2 B
Current Assets256.86 B270.27 B462.92 B643.36 B739.86 B798.27 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations125.81 B150.97 B180.61 B231.79 B266.55 B287.6 B
Weighted Average Shares20.43 B20.64 B21.02 B21.62 B24.86 B24.52 B
Weighted Average Shares Diluted20.88 B20.99 B21.35 B21.98 B25.28 B25.14 B

Alibaba Fundamentals

About Alibaba Group Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alibaba Group Holding's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alibaba Group using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the Peoples Republic of China and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the Peoples Republic of China. Alibaba Group operates under Internet Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 259316 people.

Alibaba Group Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alibaba Group's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alibaba. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Alibaba Group Implied Volatility

    
  136.28  
Alibaba Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alibaba Group Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alibaba Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alibaba Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alibaba Group's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alibaba Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alibaba Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alibaba Group options trading.

Current Sentiment - BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Alibaba Group Holding. What is your sentiment towards investing in Alibaba Group Holding? Are you bullish or bearish?
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2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Alibaba Group

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alibaba Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alibaba Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alibaba Group Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alibaba Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alibaba Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alibaba Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alibaba Group Holding to buy it.
The correlation of Alibaba Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alibaba Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alibaba Group Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alibaba Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Alibaba Group Piotroski F Score and Alibaba Group Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Alibaba Group Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alibaba Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Alibaba Stock analysis

When running Alibaba Group Holding price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alibaba Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alibaba Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.