Armour Probability Of Bankruptcy

ARR
 Stock
  

USD 7.55  0.05  0.66%   

Armour Residential Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Armour Residential Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Armour Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Armour balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Please continue to Armour Residential Piotroski F Score and Armour Residential Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Armour Residential Invested Capital is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Armour Residential reported last year Invested Capital of 8.87 Billion. As of 08/07/2022, Invested Capital Average is likely to grow to about 13.3 B, while Net Income Per Employee is likely to drop (2 M).

Armour Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Armour Residential's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2017 2018 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable Turnover60.8725.9929.8834.42
Receivables Turnover4.280.670.60.62
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Armour Residential Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  38%  
Most of Armour Residential's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Armour Residential R is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Armour Residential probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Armour Residential odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Armour Residential R financial health.
Is Armour Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armour Residential. If investors know Armour will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armour Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.58
Market Capitalization
865.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.34
Return On Assets
-0.016
Return On Equity
-0.11
The market value of Armour Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armour that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armour Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armour Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armour Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armour Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armour Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Armour Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armour Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Armour Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Armour Residential is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Armour Residential's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Armour Residential's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Armour Residential's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Armour Residential R has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 38.0%. This is 11.15% lower than that of the Real Estate sector and significantly higher than that of the REIT—Mortgage industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 4.59% higher than that of the company.

Armour Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Armour Residential's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Armour Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Armour Residential by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Armour Residential is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Armour Residential Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets0.019(0.015)(0.019)(0.041)0.0010.001079
Gross Margin0.881.41.141.110.550.6
Total Debt7.56 B7.05 B11.39 B4.54 B3.95 B6.05 B
Total Liabilities7.6 B7.34 B11.84 B4.59 B4.13 B6.26 B
Current Liabilities11.6 B6.84 B7.59 B7.31 B6.58 B7.51 B
Total Assets8.93 B8.46 B13.27 B5.52 B5.28 B7.43 B
Current Assets589.26 M379.53 M446.77 M471.62 M542.36 M710.01 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations110.08 M75.22 M(40.72 M)(257.82 M)11.74 M12.05 M
Weighted Average Shares39.17 M42.13 M57.83 M63.07 M79.49 M67.46 M
Weighted Average Shares Diluted39.64 M42.13 M57.83 M63.07 M80.31 M67.96 M

Armour Fundamentals

About Armour Residential Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Armour Residential R's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Armour Residential using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Armour Residential R based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities in the United States. The companys securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entitys and the Government National Mortgage Administrations issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Armour Residential without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Armour Residential

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Armour Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Armour Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Armour Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Armour Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Armour Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Armour Residential R to buy it.
The correlation of Armour Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Armour Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Armour Residential moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Armour Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Armour Residential Piotroski F Score and Armour Residential Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Armour Residential information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Armour Residential's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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Is Armour Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armour Residential. If investors know Armour will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armour Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.58
Market Capitalization
865.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.34
Return On Assets
-0.016
Return On Equity
-0.11
The market value of Armour Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armour that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armour Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armour Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armour Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armour Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armour Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Armour Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armour Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.