AGNC Investment Beneish M Score

AGNC
 Stock
  

USD 9.95  0.03  0.30%   

This module uses fundamental data of AGNC Investment to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. AGNC Investment M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to AGNC Investment Piotroski F Score and AGNC Investment Altman Z Score analysis.
  
AGNC Investment Long Term Debt is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt was at 126 Million. The current year Total Debt is expected to grow to about 68.8 B, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to (5.2 B). AGNC Investment Interest Coverage is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 19.38. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.0256, whereas Calculated Tax Rate is forecasted to decline to 0.85.
At this time, it appears that AGNC Investment Corp is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if AGNC Investment's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by AGNC Investment executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of AGNC Investment's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-3.13
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables0.93Focus
Asset QualityN/AFocus
Expense Coverage1.09Focus
Gross Margin Strengs0.99Focus
Accruals Factor1.09Focus
Depreciation ResistanceN/AFocus
Net Sales Growth1.09Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.12Focus

AGNC Investment Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if AGNC Investment's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense64.2 M54 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues993.4 M912 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Very volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables10.6 B10.5 B
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income152.3 M148.3 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.4 B1.5 B
Significantly Down
Increasing
Stable
Current Liabilities71.4 B89.1 B
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities57.5 B57.9 B
Slightly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments67.8 B55.2 B
Fairly Up
Increasing
Stable
Gross Margin64.1364.51
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion31 M28.8 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt68.8 B57.2 B
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets23.2 B21.5 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets66.5 B68.1 B
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile

AGNC Investment Corp Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between AGNC Investment's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards AGNC Investment in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find AGNC Investment's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About AGNC Investment Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

31.02 Million

AGNC Investment Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 28.75 Million

AGNC Investment Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as AGNC Investment. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Trade and Non Trade Receivables10.96 B22.3 B10.18 B11.96 B10.47 B10.58 B
Revenues1.36 B1.4 B2.92 B501 M912 M993.43 M
Total Assets70.38 B109.24 B113.08 B81.82 B68.15 B66.52 B
Current Assets4.16 B9.2 B12.35 B23.87 B21.48 B23.18 B
Selling General and Administrative Expense42 M45 M47 M56 M54 M64.25 M
Total Liabilities61.62 B99.33 B102.04 B70.74 B57.86 B57.48 B
Current Liabilities43.77 B45.77 B61.24 B98.98 B89.08 B71.38 B
Total Debt61.12 B97.42 B98.95 B64.27 B57.2 B68.75 B
Operating Income215 M623 M771 M129 M148.35 M152.25 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.26 B1.11 B1.18 B1.75 B1.54 B1.41 B
Investments57.31 B84.61 B100.73 B66.81 B55.21 B67.77 B

About AGNC Investment Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze AGNC Investment Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of AGNC Investment using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. Agnc Investment operates under REITMortgage classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 50 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AGNC Investment without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with AGNC Investment

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AGNC Investment position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AGNC Investment will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AGNC Investment

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Moving against AGNC Investment

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to AGNC Investment could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AGNC Investment when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AGNC Investment - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AGNC Investment Corp to buy it.
The correlation of AGNC Investment is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AGNC Investment moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AGNC Investment Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AGNC Investment can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to AGNC Investment Piotroski F Score and AGNC Investment Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running AGNC Investment Corp price analysis, check to measure AGNC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGNC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of AGNC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGNC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGNC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGNC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AGNC Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC Investment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGNC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AGNC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGNC Investment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGNC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGNC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGNC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGNC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGNC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AGNC Investment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGNC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.