Associated Beneish M Score

AC
 Stock
  

USD 41.77  0.11  0.26%   

This module uses fundamental data of Associated Capital to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Associated Capital M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Associated Capital Piotroski F Score and Associated Capital Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Associated Capital Total Debt is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Debt was at 12.9 Million. The current year Debt to Equity Ratio is expected to grow to 0.08, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to (2.4 K). Associated Capital Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cash and Equivalents Turnover was at 0.07. The current year Cash Flow Per Share is expected to grow to 3.31, whereas Calculated Tax Rate is forecasted to decline to (45.60) .
At this time, it appears that Associated Capital is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Associated Capital's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Associated Capital executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Associated Capital's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-3.58
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables0.91Focus
Asset QualityN/AFocus
Expense Coverage1.11Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.14Focus
Accruals Factor1.11Focus
Depreciation ResistanceN/AFocus
Net Sales Growth1.02Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.16Focus

Associated Capital Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Associated Capital's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense27.6 M24.5 M
Moderately Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues20.8 M20.5 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Very volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables47 M50.8 M
Significantly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations74.8 M69.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities53.9 M35.1 M
Way Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities112.1 M101.4 M
Significantly Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Investments574 M464.1 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.680.597
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion408.9 K379 K
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt13.1 M12.9 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets316.4 M369.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets809.6 M859 M
Notably Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Associated Capital Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Associated Capital's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Associated Capital in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Associated Capital's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Associated Capital Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Cost of Revenue

9.09 Million

Associated Capital Cost of Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cost of Revenue was at 8.43 Million

Associated Capital Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Associated Capital. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Trade and Non Trade Receivables56.49 M30.33 M37.06 M32.02 M50.79 M47.01 M
Revenues22.84 M31.23 M26.91 M22.78 M20.5 M20.82 M
Total Assets836.75 M952.6 M1.01 B954.43 M858.99 M809.58 M
Current Assets213.21 M315.62 M308.98 M410.87 M369.79 M316.38 M
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion16 K21 K19 K52 K379 K408.92 K
Selling General and Administrative Expense36.52 M26.61 M23.81 M19.44 M24.46 M27.61 M
Total Liabilities87.55 M78.58 M88.77 M88.19 M101.41 M112.06 M
Current Liabilities76.87 M38.49 M37.72 M30.57 M35.15 M53.85 M
Total Debt5.73 M9.57 M16.42 M17.57 M12.9 M13.13 M
Operating Income(14.31 M)(12.23 M)(20.39 M)(13.48 M)(15.5 M)(16.73 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations(47.35 M)6.59 M(67.62 M)76.98 M69.28 M74.75 M
Investments644.14 M490.82 M605.04 M1.06 B464.12 M573.97 M

About Associated Capital Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Associated Capital Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Associated Capital using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Associated Capital Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Associated Capital Group, Inc. provides investment advisory services in the United States. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut. Associated Capital operates under Capital Markets classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 25 people.

Associated Capital Investors Sentiment

The influence of Associated Capital's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Associated. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Associated Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Associated. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Associated can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Associated Capital Group. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Associated Capital's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Associated Capital's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Associated Capital's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Associated Capital.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Associated Capital in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Associated Capital's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Associated Capital options trading.

Pair Trading with Associated Capital

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Associated Capital position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Associated Capital will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Associated Capital could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Associated Capital when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Associated Capital - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Associated Capital Group to buy it.
The correlation of Associated Capital is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Associated Capital moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Associated Capital moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Associated Capital can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Associated Capital Piotroski F Score and Associated Capital Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Associated Capital information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Associated Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

Complementary Tools for Associated Stock analysis

When running Associated Capital price analysis, check to measure Associated Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Associated Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Associated Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Associated Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Associated Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Associated Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Is Associated Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Associated Capital. If investors know Associated will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Associated Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.81) 
Market Capitalization
921.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.213
Return On Assets
(0.0063) 
Return On Equity
(0.0489) 
The market value of Associated Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Associated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Associated Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Associated Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Associated Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Associated Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Associated Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Associated Capital value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Associated Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.