Arbor Beneish M Score

ABR
 Stock
  

USD 14.77  0.04  0.27%   

This module uses fundamental data of Arbor Realty to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Arbor Realty M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Arbor Realty Piotroski F Score and Arbor Realty Altman Z Score analysis.
  
As of 12/03/2022, Total Debt is likely to grow to about 13.1 B. Also, Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is likely to grow to about 6.7 B. Arbor Realty Quick Ratio is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Arbor Realty reported last year Quick Ratio of 0.08. As of 12/03/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.07, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 2.04.
At this time, it appears that Arbor Realty Trust is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Arbor Realty's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Arbor Realty executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Arbor Realty's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.41
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.0Focus
Asset Quality1.0Focus
Expense Coverage1.0Focus
Gross Margin Strengs0.89Focus
Accruals Factor1.0Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.04Focus
Net Sales Growth1.08Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.0Focus

Arbor Realty Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Arbor Realty's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense234.5 M217.4 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues862.3 M799.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables91 M84.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net12.2 M11.9 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income419.9 M389.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations234 M216.8 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Stable
Current LiabilitiesB4.6 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities13.7 B12.7 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments14.8 B13.7 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin65.6573.474
Moderately Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion52.9 M65.8 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt13.1 B12.2 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets961.6 M891.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets16.3 B15.1 B
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Arbor Realty Trust Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Arbor Realty's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Arbor Realty in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Arbor Realty's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Arbor Realty Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Operating Expenses

170.82 Million

Arbor Realty Operating Expenses is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Arbor Realty reported last year Operating Expenses of 197.31 Million

Arbor Realty Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Arbor Realty. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Trade and Non Trade Receivables688 K1.29 M10.65 M12.45 M84.32 M90.97 M
Revenues346.66 M484.9 M535.78 M603.72 M799.24 M862.33 M
Total Assets3.63 B4.61 B6.24 B7.66 B15.07 B16.26 B
Current Assets243.77 M340.67 M510.56 M537 M891.27 M961.63 M
Property Plant and Equipment Net19.49 M16.79 M14.45 M13.22 M11.9 M12.21 M
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion54.59 M55.58 M56.19 M56.86 M65.83 M52.95 M
Selling General and Administrative Expense122.86 M147.54 M162.43 M181.73 M217.37 M234.53 M
Total Liabilities2.93 B3.72 B5.05 B6.32 B12.66 B13.65 B
Current Liabilities628.4 M1.21 B1.77 B2.33 B4.6 B4.97 B
Total Debt2.63 B3.39 B4.7 B5.91 B12.15 B13.11 B
Operating Income106.7 M161.63 M167.08 M164.31 M389.21 M419.93 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations460.83 M(37.73 M)(226.54 M)55.16 M216.85 M233.97 M
Investments3.18 B4.05 B5.47 B6.82 B13.73 B14.81 B
Gross Margin74.0268.2865.2171.9773.4765.65

About Arbor Realty Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Arbor Realty Trust's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Arbor Realty using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arbor Realty Trust based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York. Arbor Realty operates under REITMortgage classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 579 people.

Arbor Realty Investors Sentiment

The influence of Arbor Realty's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Arbor. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Arbor Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Arbor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arbor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arbor Realty Trust. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Arbor Realty's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Arbor Realty's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Arbor Realty's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Arbor Realty.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arbor Realty in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arbor Realty's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arbor Realty options trading.

Pair Trading with Arbor Realty

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arbor Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arbor Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Arbor Realty

+0.77BAMBrookfield Asset Man Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.83BGCPBGC Partners Aggressive PushPairCorr
+0.88BLKBlackRock Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arbor Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arbor Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arbor Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arbor Realty Trust to buy it.
The correlation of Arbor Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arbor Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arbor Realty Trust moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arbor Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Arbor Realty Piotroski F Score and Arbor Realty Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Arbor Realty Trust price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.28) 
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.05) 
Return On Assets
0.025
Return On Equity
15.79
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arbor Realty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.