Aaon Beneish M Score

AAON
 Stock
  

USD 63.29  0.07  0.11%   

This module uses fundamental data of Aaon to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Aaon M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Aaon Piotroski F Score and Aaon Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is expected to rise to about 49.6 M this year, although the value of Total Debt will most likely fall to about 37.1 M. Aaon Operating Margin is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Operating Margin is estimated at 13.52. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to rise to 13.40 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 8.14.
At this time, it appears that Aaon Inc is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Aaon's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Aaon executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Aaon's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.62
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables0.98Focus
Asset Quality0.75Focus
Expense Coverage0.94Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.12Focus
Accruals Factor0.94Focus
Depreciation Resistance0.98Focus
Net Sales Growth0.95Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.28Focus

Aaon Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Aaon's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues510.1 M534.5 M
Sufficiently Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense61.3 M68.6 M
Moderately Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations69.3 M61.2 M
Moderately Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion25.7 M30.4 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets520.1 M650.2 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments578.2 K563.4 K
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Current26.8 K26.1 K
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Stable
Investments Non Current551.4 K537.3 K
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net227.1 M275 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables65.9 M70.8 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities198.5 M184 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets199 M218.1 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current466.2 M432.1 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities74 M86.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current104.9 M97.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt37.1 M46 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current4.1 M4.1 M
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current35.8 M36 M
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income73.8 M69.3 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.290.258
Moderately Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Aaon Inc Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Aaon's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Aaon in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Aaon's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Aaon Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

25.74 Million

Aaon Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is estimated at 25.74 Million

Aaon Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Aaon. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues405.23 M433.95 M469.33 M514.55 M534.52 M510.11 M
Total Assets296.78 M307.99 M371.42 M449.01 M650.18 M520.08 M
Current Assets153.73 M140.66 M187.55 M220.25 M218.08 M198.99 M
Assets Non Current143.05 M167.34 M183.88 M228.76 M432.1 M466.21 M
Total Liabilities59.55 M58.55 M81.28 M98.14 M184.01 M198.54 M
Current Liabilities50.06 M47.49 M56.03 M59.03 M86.77 M74.05 M
Operating Income74.23 M55.35 M67.01 M101.84 M69.25 M73.76 M
Investments14.77 M6.78 M625 K626 K563.4 K578.23 K
Investments Current12.47 M14.11 M6.11 M29 K26.1 K26.79 K

About Aaon Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Aaon Inc's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Aaon using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aaon Inc based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Aaon operates under Building Products Equipment classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2881 people.

Aaon Investors Sentiment

The influence of Aaon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aaon. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Aaon Implied Volatility

    
  61.4  
Aaon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aaon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aaon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aaon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aaon's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aaon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aaon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aaon options trading.

Pair Trading with Aaon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aaon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aaon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Aaon

0.71APDAir Products And Fiscal Year End 3rd of November 2022 PairCorr

Moving against Aaon

0.59ARCHArch Resources Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aaon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aaon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aaon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aaon Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Aaon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aaon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aaon Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aaon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Aaon Piotroski F Score and Aaon Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Aaon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aaon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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Is Aaon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aaon. If investors know Aaon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aaon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.21
Market Capitalization
3.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.45
Return On Assets
0.0681
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Aaon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aaon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aaon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aaon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aaon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aaon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aaon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aaon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aaon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.