Northwest Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.81

NWBI
 Stock
  

USD 12.81  0.07  0.54%   

Northwest Bancshares' future price is the expected price of Northwest Bancshares instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Northwest Bancshares performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 16.14. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 3.73.
  
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Northwest Bancshares' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Northwest Bancshares. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Northwest Bancshares based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Northwest Bancshares over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Northwest Bancshares' common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-24 at 15:54:40 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.25, and an ask price of $0.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of June is 22.8606. View All Northwest options

Closest to current price Northwest long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Northwest Bancshares Backtesting, Northwest Bancshares Valuation, Northwest Bancshares Correlation, Northwest Bancshares Hype Analysis, Northwest Bancshares Volatility, Northwest Bancshares History as well as Northwest Bancshares Performance. Please specify Northwest Bancshares time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Northwest Bancshares odds to be computed.
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Northwest Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish over 12.81

The tendency of Northwest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 12.81 90 days 12.81  about 42.69
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northwest Bancshares to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 42.69 (This Northwest Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Northwest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Northwest Bancshares has a beta of 0.55. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northwest Bancshares average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northwest Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0348, implying that it can generate a 0.0348 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Northwest Bancshares Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Northwest Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northwest Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.6312.8113.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.0013.1814.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.7912.9714.15
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
12.0013.6014.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northwest Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northwest Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northwest Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northwest Bancshares.

Northwest Bancshares Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northwest Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northwest Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northwest Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northwest Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.034826
β
Beta against DOW0.55
σ
Overall volatility
0.38
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Northwest Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northwest Bancshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northwest Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northwest Bancshares generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Northwest Bancshares has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Insider Selling First Financial Northwest, Inc. CFO Sells 2481 Shares of Stock - Defense World

Northwest Bancshares Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northwest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northwest Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date4th of May 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out5.09%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.80
Short Percent Of Float7.49%
Float Shares125.18M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.16M
Shares Short Prior Month5.98M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month911.05k
Date Short Interest31st of May 2022

Northwest Bancshares Technical Analysis

Northwest Bancshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northwest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northwest Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northwest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Northwest Bancshares Predictive Forecast Models

Northwest Bancshares time-series forecasting models is one of many Northwest Bancshares' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Northwest Bancshares' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Northwest Bancshares

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northwest Bancshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northwest Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Northwest Bancshares Alerts

Northwest Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions

Northwest Bancshares generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Northwest Bancshares has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Insider Selling First Financial Northwest, Inc. CFO Sells 2481 Shares of Stock - Defense World
Additionally, see Northwest Bancshares Backtesting, Northwest Bancshares Valuation, Northwest Bancshares Correlation, Northwest Bancshares Hype Analysis, Northwest Bancshares Volatility, Northwest Bancshares History as well as Northwest Bancshares Performance. Note that the Northwest Bancshares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Northwest Bancshares' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Northwest Stock analysis

When running Northwest Bancshares price analysis, check to measure Northwest Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northwest Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Northwest Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northwest Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northwest Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northwest Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northwest Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Bancshares. If investors know Northwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northwest Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.31
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.15
Return On Assets
0.0099
Return On Equity
0.0929
The market value of Northwest Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northwest Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northwest Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northwest Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northwest Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northwest Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northwest Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northwest Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.