Bancfirst Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 116.83

BANF
 Stock
  

USD 116.83  0.17  0.15%   

Bancfirst Corp's future price is the expected price of Bancfirst Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Bancfirst Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.02. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 16.21.
  
Bancfirst Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Bancfirst Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Bancfirst Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Bancfirst Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $115.0 is a CALL option contract on Bancfirst Corp's common stock with a strick price of 115.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-09 at 15:27:52 for $1.35 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $3.6. The implied volatility as of the 17th of August 2022 is 15.7215. View All Bancfirst options

Closest to current price Bancfirst long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Bancfirst Corp Backtesting, Bancfirst Corp Valuation, Bancfirst Corp Correlation, Bancfirst Corp Hype Analysis, Bancfirst Corp Volatility, Bancfirst Corp History as well as Bancfirst Corp Performance. Please specify Bancfirst Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Bancfirst Corp odds to be computed.

Bancfirst Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 116.83

The tendency of Bancfirst Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 116.83 90 days 116.83 
about 1.75
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bancfirst Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.75 (This Bancfirst Corp probability density function shows the probability of Bancfirst Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bancfirst Corp has a beta of 0.56 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bancfirst Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bancfirst Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4794, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Bancfirst Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Bancfirst Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bancfirst Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bancfirst Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bancfirst Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
115.06117.26119.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
96.3498.54128.40
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
68.0069.5072.50
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.934.934.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bancfirst Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bancfirst Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bancfirst Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bancfirst Corp.

Bancfirst Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bancfirst Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bancfirst Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bancfirst Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bancfirst Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.48
β
Beta against DOW0.56
σ
Overall volatility
9.79
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

Bancfirst Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bancfirst Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bancfirst Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bancfirst Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Bancfirst Corp was previously known as Bfc Capital Trust and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol BANFP.
About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of July 2022 Bancfirst Corp paid $ 0.36 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by C Craig of 1000 shares of Bancfirst Corp

Bancfirst Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bancfirst Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bancfirst Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bancfirst Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.10%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.38
Short Percent Of Float7.00%
Float Shares19.42M
Shares Short Prior Month1.13M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day138.37k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month160.86k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.23%

Bancfirst Corp Technical Analysis

Bancfirst Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bancfirst Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bancfirst Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bancfirst Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Bancfirst Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Bancfirst Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Bancfirst Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Bancfirst Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Bancfirst Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Bancfirst Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bancfirst Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Bancfirst Corp Alerts

Bancfirst Corp Alerts and Suggestions

Bancfirst Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Bancfirst Corp was previously known as Bfc Capital Trust and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol BANFP.
About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of July 2022 Bancfirst Corp paid $ 0.36 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by C Craig of 1000 shares of Bancfirst Corp
Continue to Bancfirst Corp Backtesting, Bancfirst Corp Valuation, Bancfirst Corp Correlation, Bancfirst Corp Hype Analysis, Bancfirst Corp Volatility, Bancfirst Corp History as well as Bancfirst Corp Performance. Note that the Bancfirst Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bancfirst Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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When running Bancfirst Corp price analysis, check to measure Bancfirst Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bancfirst Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Bancfirst Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bancfirst Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bancfirst Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bancfirst Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bancfirst Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bancfirst Corp. If investors know Bancfirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bancfirst Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.076
Market Capitalization
3.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.024
Return On Assets
0.0134
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of Bancfirst Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bancfirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bancfirst Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bancfirst Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bancfirst Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bancfirst Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bancfirst Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bancfirst Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bancfirst Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.