Photronics Stock Future Price Prediction

PLAB
 Stock
  

USD 18.69  0.06  0.32%   

Photronics stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Photronics shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Photronics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Photronics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Photronics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Photronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Photronics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Photronics based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Photronics stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Photronics over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.84
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.01
Wall Street Target Price
25.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.29
Using Photronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Photronics from the perspective of Photronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Photronics using Photronics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Photronics using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Photronics' stock price.
Photronics Interest Coverage is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 163.65. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.16, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 9.28.

Photronics Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Photronics' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Photronics. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Photronics stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Photronics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Photronics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Photronics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
18.1
Short Percent
0.0258
Short Ratio
2.56
Shares Short Prior Month
1.9 M
50 Day MA
16.55
Shares Short
1.3 M

Photronics Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Photronics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Photronics. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Photronics can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Photronics. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Photronics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Photronics.

Photronics Implied Volatility

    
  106.01  
Photronics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Photronics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Photronics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Photronics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Photronics' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Photronics. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Photronics to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Photronics because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Photronics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.86  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Photronics contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Photronics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.63% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Photronics trading at USD18.69, that is roughly USD1.24. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Photronics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Photronics options at the current volatility level of 106.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Photronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Photronics in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.8919.2121.53
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0020.6724.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.271.301.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Photronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Photronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Photronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Photronics.

Photronics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Photronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Photronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Photronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Photronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Photronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Photronics' historical news coverage. Photronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.54 and 21.18, respectively. We have considered Photronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 18.69
18.86
After-hype Price
21.18
Upside
Photronics is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Photronics is based on 3 months time horizon.

Photronics Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Photronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Photronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Photronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.33  2.32  0.06    0.16  4 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.6918.860.32 
1,289  

Photronics Hype Timeline

Photronics is at this time traded for 18.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. Photronics is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 18.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.32% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Photronics is about 464.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 18.53. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 663.76 M. Net Income was 78.82 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 167.04 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Please check Photronics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Photronics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Photronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Photronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Photronics rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Photronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ASYSAmtech Systems(0.50) 3 per month 0.00 (0.08)  6.47 (5.57)  24.86 

Photronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Photronics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Photronics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Photronics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Photronics Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Photronics stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Photronics, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Photronics based on analysis of Photronics hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Photronics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Photronics's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.06830.110.120.16
Interest Coverage35.01181.83163.65176.57

Story Coverage note for Photronics

The number of cover stories for Photronics depends on current market conditions and Photronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Photronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Photronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Photronics Short Properties

Photronics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Photronics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Photronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Photronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Photronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding61999000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments276670000.00
Please check Photronics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Photronics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Photronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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Is Photronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Photronics. If investors know Photronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Photronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
Market Capitalization
1.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.29
Return On Assets
0.0878
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Photronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Photronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Photronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Photronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Photronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Photronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Photronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Photronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Photronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.