Penn National Stock Future Price Prediction

PENN
 Stock
  

USD 32.95  0.34  1.02%   

Penn National Gaming stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Penn National shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Penn National's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Penn National and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Penn National's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Penn National Gaming, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Penn National based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Penn National stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Penn National over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.383
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.56
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.98
Wall Street Target Price
47.59
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.38
Using Penn National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penn National Gaming from the perspective of Penn National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penn National using Penn National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penn National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penn National's stock price.
Penn National Accrued Expenses Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated at 8.67. Operating Margin is expected to rise to 19.36 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 113.82.

Penn National Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Penn National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Penn National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Penn National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Penn National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Penn National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Penn National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
34.5492
Short Percent
0.1
Short Ratio
3.57
Shares Short Prior Month
11.6 M
50 Day MA
32.4222
Shares Short
11.6 M

Penn National Gaming Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Penn National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Penn National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penn National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penn National Gaming. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penn National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penn National.

Penn National Implied Volatility

    
  62.49  
Penn National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penn National Gaming stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penn National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penn National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penn National's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Penn National. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penn National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penn National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Penn National after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 32.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penn National contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penn National Gaming will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.91% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Penn National trading at USD32.95, that is roughly USD1.29. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penn National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penn National Gaming options at the current volatility level of 62.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penn National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Penn National in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.6644.2147.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
28.0131.3234.63
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0083.69150.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.502.642.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Penn National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Penn National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Penn National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Penn National Gaming.

Penn National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Penn National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penn National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penn National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Penn National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Penn National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penn National's historical news coverage. Penn National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.54 and 36.16, respectively. We have considered Penn National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 32.95
32.85
After-hype Price
36.16
Upside
Penn National is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penn National Gaming is based on 3 months time horizon.

Penn National Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Penn National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penn National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penn National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.05  3.33   0.07    0.03  7 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.9532.850.30 
254.20  

Penn National Hype Timeline

Penn National Gaming is at this time traded for 32.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Penn National is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 32.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.3% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Penn National is about 663.05% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 32.92. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.51. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Penn National Gaming had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 4423:1000 split on the 4th of November 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days.
Please check Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Penn National Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Penn National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penn National's future price movements. Getting to know how Penn National rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penn National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CMCSAComcast Corp 0.36 10 per month 1.87 (0.0149)  3.81 (2.98)  9.33 
MRKMerck Company 1.25 8 per month 0.81  0.25  2.44 (1.43)  7.38 
MCDMcDonalds(0.27) 8 per month 1.08  0.0278  1.99 (1.69)  5.72 
VZVerizon Communications(0.21) 7 per month 0.00 (0.12)  2.21 (2.62)  7.59 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.76) 8 per month 4.27  0.0078  7.74 (7.61)  20.15 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp(2.75) 8 per month 1.87  0.06  3.65 (2.91)  9.75 
PFEPfizer Inc 0.21 9 per month 1.16  0.09  3.14 (2.01)  6.76 
WMTWalmart(1.84) 8 per month 1.19  0.06  2.11 (2.33)  7.94 
DDDupont De Nemours(0.51) 9 per month 1.45  0.13  3.91 (2.34)  10.00 

Penn National Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Penn National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penn National using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penn National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Penn National Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Penn National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penn National Gaming, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penn National based on analysis of Penn National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penn National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penn National's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity3.592.381.632.13
Interest Coverage1.071.892.172.37

Story Coverage note for Penn National

The number of cover stories for Penn National depends on current market conditions and Penn National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Penn National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Penn National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Penn National Short Properties

Penn National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Penn National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Penn National Gaming often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Penn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding175500000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1863000000.00
Please check Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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When running Penn National Gaming price analysis, check to measure Penn National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penn National is operating at the current time. Most of Penn National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penn National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penn National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penn National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Penn National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.383
Market Capitalization
5.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0735
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Penn National value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.