Realty Stock Future Price Prediction

O
 Stock
  

USD 60.27  1.05  1.77%   

Realty Income Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Realty Income shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Realty Income's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Realty Income and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Realty Income's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Realty Income Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Realty Income Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Realty Income based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Realty stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Realty Income over a specific investment horizon.Using Realty Income hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Realty Income Corp from the perspective of Realty Income response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Realty Income using Realty Income's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Realty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Realty Income's stock price.

Realty Income Implied Volatility

    
  30.88  
Realty Income's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Realty Income Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Realty Income's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Realty Income stock will not fluctuate a lot when Realty Income's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Realty Income. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Realty Income to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Realty because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Realty Income after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 60.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Realty contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Realty Income Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.93% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Realty Income trading at $60.27, that is roughly $1.16. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Realty Income's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Realty Income Corp options at the current volatility level of 30.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Realty Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Realty Income in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
54.2470.3871.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
56.6357.9359.24
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
63.0077.5085.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
60.6970.0979.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Realty Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Realty Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Realty Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Realty Income Corp.

Realty Income After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Realty Income at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Realty Income or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Realty Income, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Realty Income Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Realty Income's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Realty Income's historical news coverage. Realty Income's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.74 and 61.34, respectively. We have considered Realty Income's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 60.27
60.04
After-hype Price
61.34
Upside
Realty Income is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Realty Income Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Realty Income Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Realty Income is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Realty Income backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Realty Income, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20  1.31   0.22   0.42  8 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
60.2760.040.38 
120.18  

Realty Income Hype Timeline

As of October 5, 2022 Realty Income Corp is listed for 60.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.42. Realty is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 60.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 120.18%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.38% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Realty Income is about 62.38% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 60.69. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.95. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Realty Income Corp last dividend was issued on the 29th of July 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 3rd of January 2005. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please check Realty Income Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Realty Income Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Realty Income's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Realty Income's future price movements. Getting to know how Realty Income rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Realty Income may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc 2.10 11 per month 2.37  0.08  4.00 (3.62)  17.42 

Realty Income Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Realty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Realty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Realty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Realty Income Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Realty Income stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Realty Income Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Realty Income based on analysis of Realty Income hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Realty Income's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Realty Income's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Realty Income

The number of cover stories for Realty Income depends on current market conditions and Realty Income's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Realty Income is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Realty Income's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Realty Income Short Properties

Realty Income's future price predictability will typically decrease when Realty Income's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Realty Income Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Realty Income's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Realty Income's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.38%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.81
Short Percent Of Float3.97%
Float Shares600.64M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.97M
Shares Short Prior Month16.96M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.72M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.72%
Please check Realty Income Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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Is Realty Income's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Realty Income. If investors know Realty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Realty Income listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Realty Income Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Realty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Realty Income's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Realty Income's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Realty Income's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Realty Income's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Realty Income's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Realty Income value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Realty Income's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.