Northrop Stock Future Price Prediction

NOC
 Stock
  

USD 527.83  7.22  1.39%   

Northrop Grumman Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Northrop Grumman shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Northrop Grumman's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northrop Grumman and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northrop Grumman's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northrop Grumman Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Northrop Grumman based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Northrop stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Northrop Grumman over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.11) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
6.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
24.64
EPS Estimate Next Year
22.61
Wall Street Target Price
553.95
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
6.11
Using Northrop Grumman hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northrop Grumman Corp from the perspective of Northrop Grumman response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northrop Grumman using Northrop Grumman's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northrop using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northrop Grumman's stock price.
Northrop Grumman Interest Coverage is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 6.60. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 25.73, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is forecasted to decline to 0.96.

Northrop Grumman Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Northrop Grumman's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northrop. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northrop Grumman stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Northrop Grumman may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Northrop Grumman and may potentially protect profits, hedge Northrop Grumman with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
470.32
Short Percent
0.0169
Short Ratio
2.38
Shares Short Prior Month
2.4 M
50 Day MA
506.81
Shares Short
2.6 M

Northrop Grumman Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Northrop Grumman's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Northrop. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northrop can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northrop Grumman Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northrop Grumman's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northrop Grumman.

Northrop Grumman Implied Volatility

    
  24.08  
Northrop Grumman's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northrop Grumman Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northrop Grumman's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northrop Grumman stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northrop Grumman's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Northrop Grumman. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northrop Grumman to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northrop because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Northrop Grumman after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 529.21  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northrop contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northrop Grumman Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.51% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Northrop Grumman trading at $527.83, that is roughly $7.95. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northrop Grumman's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northrop Grumman Corp options at the current volatility level of 24.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northrop Grumman's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northrop Grumman in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
408.37410.59580.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
541.61543.83546.06
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
331.00398.91460.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
25.4525.5725.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northrop Grumman. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northrop Grumman's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northrop Grumman's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northrop Grumman Corp.

Northrop Grumman After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Northrop Grumman at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northrop Grumman or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northrop Grumman, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Northrop Grumman Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Northrop Grumman's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northrop Grumman's historical news coverage. Northrop Grumman's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 526.99 and 531.43, respectively. We have considered Northrop Grumman's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 527.83
526.99
Downside
529.21
After-hype Price
531.43
Upside
Northrop Grumman is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northrop Grumman Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Northrop Grumman Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Northrop Grumman is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northrop Grumman backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northrop Grumman, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.18  2.22  1.38   1.56  9 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
527.83529.210.26 
28.98  

Northrop Grumman Hype Timeline

On the 28th of November Northrop Grumman Corp is traded for 527.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.38 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.56. Northrop is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 529.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 28.98%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.26% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Northrop Grumman is about 25.58% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 529.39. The company reported the last year's revenue of 35.21 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 5.53 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 7.27 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days.
Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Northrop Grumman Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Northrop Grumman's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northrop Grumman's future price movements. Getting to know how Northrop Grumman rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northrop Grumman may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Northrop Grumman Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Northrop price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northrop using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northrop charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Northrop Grumman Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Northrop Grumman stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northrop Grumman Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northrop Grumman based on analysis of Northrop Grumman hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northrop Grumman's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northrop Grumman's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.451.350.990.96
Interest Coverage7.526.856.69.34

Story Coverage note for Northrop Grumman

The number of cover stories for Northrop Grumman depends on current market conditions and Northrop Grumman's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northrop Grumman is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northrop Grumman's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Northrop Grumman Short Properties

Northrop Grumman's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northrop Grumman's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northrop Grumman Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northrop Grumman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northrop Grumman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date26th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out1.69%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate6.60
Short Percent Of Float1.69%
Float Shares153.57M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.25M
Shares Short Prior Month2.36M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month982.77k
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022
Additionally, see Northrop Grumman Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Northrop Grumman Corp price analysis, check to measure Northrop Grumman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northrop Grumman is operating at the current time. Most of Northrop Grumman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northrop Grumman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northrop Grumman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northrop Grumman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northrop Grumman's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrop Grumman. If investors know Northrop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrop Grumman listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.11) 
Market Capitalization
81.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.029
Return On Assets
0.11
Return On Equity
0.44
The market value of Northrop Grumman Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrop Grumman's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrop Grumman's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrop Grumman's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrop Grumman's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northrop Grumman value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.