Nio Inc Stock Future Price Prediction

NIO
 Stock
  

USD 17.64  0.71  3.87%   

Nio Inc ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Nio Inc shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Nio Inc's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Nio Inc and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Nio Inc's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nio Inc ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Nio Inc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Nio Inc based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Nio Inc stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Nio Inc over a specific investment horizon.Using Nio Inc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nio Inc ADR from the perspective of Nio Inc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nio Inc using Nio Inc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nio Inc using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nio Inc's stock price.

Nio Inc Implied Volatility

    
  83.38  
Nio Inc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nio Inc ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nio Inc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nio Inc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nio Inc's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Nio Inc. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Nio Inc to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Nio Inc because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Nio Inc after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 17.54  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nio Inc contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nio Inc ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.21% per day over the life of the 2022-09-30 option contract. With Nio Inc trading at $17.64, that is roughly $0.92. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nio Inc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nio Inc ADR options at the current volatility level of 83.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nio Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
15.8828.4332.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
12.6016.5320.47
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0062.7080.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.2019.4522.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nio Inc ADR.

Nio Inc After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nio Inc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nio Inc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nio Inc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nio Inc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nio Inc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nio Inc's historical news coverage. Nio Inc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.60 and 21.48, respectively. We have considered Nio Inc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 17.64
17.54
After-hype Price
21.48
Upside
Nio Inc is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nio Inc ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nio Inc Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Nio Inc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nio Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nio Inc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.33  3.94   0.10   0.17  6 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.6417.540.57 
1,271  

Nio Inc Hype Timeline

On the 25th of September Nio Inc ADR is traded for 17.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Nio Inc is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 17.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.57% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Nio Inc is about 788.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 17.81. About 38.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.02. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Nio Inc ADR recorded a loss per share of 1.03. The entity last dividend was issued on the August 12, 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Additionally, see Nio Inc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Nio Inc Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nio Inc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nio Inc's future price movements. Getting to know how Nio Inc rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nio Inc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IBAIndustrias Bachoco SA 0.50 3 per month 1.05  0.11  2.32 (1.88)  11.96 

Nio Inc Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Nio Inc price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nio Inc using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nio Inc charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Nio Inc Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Nio Inc stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Nio Inc ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Nio Inc based on analysis of Nio Inc hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Nio Inc's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Nio Inc's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Nio Inc

The number of cover stories for Nio Inc depends on current market conditions and Nio Inc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nio Inc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nio Inc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Nio Inc Short Properties

Nio Inc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nio Inc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nio Inc ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nio Inc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nio Inc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.59%
Float Shares1.3B
Shares Short Prior Month67.09M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day54.33M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month45.42M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Additionally, see Nio Inc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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When running Nio Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Nio Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nio Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Nio Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nio Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nio Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nio Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nio Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio Inc. If investors know Nio Inc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Nio Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio Inc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nio Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.