Murphy Stock Future Price Prediction

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 288.80  3.60  1.23%   

Murphy USA stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Murphy USA shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Murphy USA's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Murphy USA and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Murphy USA's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Murphy USA, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Murphy USA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Murphy USA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Murphy stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Murphy USA over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.33
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.21
EPS Estimate Current Year
28.07
EPS Estimate Next Year
17.98
Wall Street Target Price
293.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
7.57
Using Murphy USA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy USA from the perspective of Murphy USA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy USA using Murphy USA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy USA's stock price.
Murphy USA Interest Coverage is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 7.34. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 2.41, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 83.09.

Murphy USA Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Murphy USA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Murphy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Murphy USA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Murphy USA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Murphy USA and may potentially protect profits, hedge Murphy USA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
251.14
Short Percent
0.16
Short Ratio
7.55
Shares Short Prior Month
2.4 M
50 Day MA
287.5
Shares Short
2.8 M

Murphy USA Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Murphy USA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy USA. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy USA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy USA.

Murphy USA Implied Volatility

    
  26.06  
Murphy USA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy USA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy USA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy USA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy USA's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Murphy USA. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Murphy USA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Murphy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Murphy USA after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 292.67  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Murphy contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Murphy USA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.63% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Murphy USA trading at $288.8, that is roughly $4.7. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Murphy USA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Murphy USA options at the current volatility level of 26.06%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Murphy USA in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
239.53241.50321.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
287.96289.93291.90
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00190.75205.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
13.2013.9115.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murphy USA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murphy USA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murphy USA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Murphy USA.

Murphy USA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Murphy USA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Murphy USA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Murphy USA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Murphy USA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Murphy USA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Murphy USA's historical news coverage. Murphy USA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 290.70 and 294.64, respectively. We have considered Murphy USA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 288.80
290.70
Downside
292.67
After-hype Price
294.64
Upside
Murphy USA is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Murphy USA is based on 3 months time horizon.

Murphy USA Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Murphy USA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy USA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Murphy USA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02  1.99  0.27    0.01  6 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
288.80292.670.09 
14.61  

Murphy USA Hype Timeline

Murphy USA is now traded for 288.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Murphy is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 292.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 14.61%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Murphy USA is about 495.73% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 288.79. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 20.68 B. Net Income was 664 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.06 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days.
Additionally, see Murphy USA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Murphy USA Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Murphy USA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Murphy USA's future price movements. Getting to know how Murphy USA rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Murphy USA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Murphy USA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Murphy USA Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Murphy USA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Murphy USA, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Murphy USA based on analysis of Murphy USA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Murphy USA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Murphy USA's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.241.212.232.41
Interest Coverage5.1911.147.347.53

Story Coverage note for Murphy USA

The number of cover stories for Murphy USA depends on current market conditions and Murphy USA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy USA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy USA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Murphy USA Short Properties

Murphy USA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy USA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy USA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy USA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy USA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out11.83%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.50
Short Percent Of Float14.93%
Float Shares20.74M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day296.25k
Shares Short Prior Month2.06M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month323.96k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.17%
Additionally, see Murphy USA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Murphy USA price analysis, check to measure Murphy USA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy USA is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy USA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy USA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy USA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy USA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.33
Market Capitalization
6.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.38
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.83
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.