Mastercard Stock Future Price Prediction

MA
 Stock
  

USD 356.40  13.27  3.87%   

Mastercard stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Mastercard shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Mastercard's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Mastercard and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Mastercard's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mastercard, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Mastercard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Mastercard based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Mastercard stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Mastercard over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.057
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.67
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.58
EPS Estimate Next Year
12.18
Wall Street Target Price
397.01
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.56
Using Mastercard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mastercard from the perspective of Mastercard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mastercard using Mastercard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mastercard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mastercard's stock price.
Mastercard Interest Coverage is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 23.39. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 1.93, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 25.59.

Mastercard Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Mastercard's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Mastercard. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Mastercard stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Mastercard may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Mastercard and may potentially protect profits, hedge Mastercard with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
335.83
Short Percent
0.0055
Short Ratio
1.45
Shares Short Prior Month
4.8 M
50 Day MA
313.84
Shares Short
4.7 M

Mastercard Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Mastercard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Mastercard. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mastercard can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mastercard. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mastercard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mastercard.

Mastercard Implied Volatility

    
  47.57  
Mastercard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mastercard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mastercard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mastercard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mastercard's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Mastercard. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mastercard to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mastercard because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Mastercard after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 355.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mastercard contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mastercard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.97% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Mastercard trading at USD356.4, that is roughly USD10.6. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mastercard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mastercard options at the current volatility level of 47.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mastercard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mastercard in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
320.76373.97376.02
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
356.06358.11360.15
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
355.00427.18482.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (15)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.218.278.47
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mastercard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mastercard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mastercard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mastercard.

Mastercard After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mastercard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mastercard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mastercard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mastercard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mastercard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mastercard's historical news coverage. Mastercard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 353.13 and 357.23, respectively. We have considered Mastercard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 356.40
353.13
Downside
355.18
After-hype Price
357.23
Upside
Mastercard is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mastercard is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mastercard Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Mastercard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mastercard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mastercard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.18  2.06   1.29    0.15  8 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
356.40355.180.34 
28.73  

Mastercard Hype Timeline

As of December 1, 2022 Mastercard is listed for 356.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.29 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Mastercard is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 355.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 28.73%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.34% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Mastercard is about 247.86% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 356.25. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.31. Mastercard recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of October 2022. The firm had 10:1 split on the 22nd of January 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally, see Mastercard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Mastercard Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mastercard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mastercard's future price movements. Getting to know how Mastercard rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mastercard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
JNJJohnson Johnson(0.21) 8 per month 0.94  0.07  1.78 (1.57)  5.47 
CATCaterpillar 1.74 8 per month 1.48  0.12  4.36 (2.70)  9.57 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp(1.61) 8 per month 1.90  0.06  3.65 (3.00)  9.75 
INTCIntel(1.21) 9 per month 0.00 (0.05)  4.33 (3.46)  14.49 
DDDupont De Nemours 0.40 8 per month 1.53  0.11  3.91 (2.55)  10.00 
IBMInternational Business Machines 0.54 9 per month 1.13  0.10  2.79 (2.32)  6.45 
KOCoca-Cola Co 0.56 4 per month 1.17 (0.0197)  2.06 (1.59)  5.09 
GEGeneral Electric(0.07) 7 per month 1.77  0.06  3.43 (2.68)  9.22 
MSFTMicrosoft(7.62) 9 per month 0.00 (0.0384)  3.92 (3.54)  11.64 

Mastercard Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mastercard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mastercard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mastercard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Mastercard Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Mastercard stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mastercard, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mastercard based on analysis of Mastercard hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mastercard's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mastercard's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.451.881.791.93
Interest Coverage43.1421.2723.3924.01

Story Coverage note for Mastercard

The number of cover stories for Mastercard depends on current market conditions and Mastercard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mastercard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mastercard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Mastercard Short Properties

Mastercard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mastercard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mastercard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mastercard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mastercard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1006000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments7894000000.00
Additionally, see Mastercard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mastercard information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mastercard's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Mastercard Stock analysis

When running Mastercard price analysis, check to measure Mastercard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mastercard is operating at the current time. Most of Mastercard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mastercard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mastercard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mastercard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mastercard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mastercard. If investors know Mastercard will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mastercard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.057
Market Capitalization
329.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.16
Return On Assets
0.21
Return On Equity
149.79
The market value of Mastercard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mastercard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mastercard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mastercard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mastercard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mastercard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mastercard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mastercard value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mastercard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.