JP Morgan Stock Future Price Prediction

JPM
 Stock
  

USD 104.50  1.66  1.56%   

JP Morgan Chase stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of JP Morgan shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of JP Morgan's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of JP Morgan and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from JP Morgan's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with JP Morgan Chase, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see JP Morgan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of JP Morgan based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The JP Morgan stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on JP Morgan over a specific investment horizon.Using JP Morgan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JP Morgan Chase from the perspective of JP Morgan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards JP Morgan using JP Morgan's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards JP Morgan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of JP Morgan's stock price.

JP Morgan Implied Volatility

    
  37.21  
JP Morgan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of JP Morgan Chase stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if JP Morgan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that JP Morgan stock will not fluctuate a lot when JP Morgan's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in JP Morgan. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in JP Morgan to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying JP Morgan because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

JP Morgan after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 104.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current JP Morgan contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that JP Morgan Chase will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.33% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With JP Morgan trading at $104.5, that is roughly $2.43. If you think that the market is fully incorporating JP Morgan's daily price movement you should consider acquiring JP Morgan Chase options at the current volatility level of 37.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JP Morgan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JP Morgan in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
94.05124.93126.57
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
135.00181.47210.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JP Morgan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JP Morgan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JP Morgan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JP Morgan Chase.

JP Morgan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of JP Morgan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JP Morgan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of JP Morgan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

JP Morgan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting JP Morgan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JP Morgan's historical news coverage. JP Morgan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.71 and 105.99, respectively. We have considered JP Morgan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 104.50
102.71
Downside
104.35
After-hype Price
105.99
Upside
JP Morgan is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JP Morgan Chase is based on 3 months time horizon.

JP Morgan Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as JP Morgan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JP Morgan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JP Morgan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10  1.64   0.15    0.27  6 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
104.50104.350.14 
110.07  

JP Morgan Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of October JP Morgan Chase is traded for 104.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.27. JP Morgan is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 104.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 110.07%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.14% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on JP Morgan is about 61.19% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 104.23. About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.29. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. JP Morgan Chase recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.61. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of July 2022. The firm had 3:2 split on the 12th of June 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days.
Please see JP Morgan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

JP Morgan Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to JP Morgan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JP Morgan's future price movements. Getting to know how JP Morgan rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JP Morgan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

JP Morgan Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine JP Morgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JP Morgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze JP Morgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About JP Morgan Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of JP Morgan stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as JP Morgan Chase, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of JP Morgan based on analysis of JP Morgan hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to JP Morgan's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to JP Morgan's related companies.

Story Coverage note for JP Morgan

The number of cover stories for JP Morgan depends on current market conditions and JP Morgan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JP Morgan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JP Morgan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

JP Morgan Short Properties

JP Morgan's future price predictability will typically decrease when JP Morgan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of JP Morgan Chase often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential JP Morgan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JP Morgan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.60%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.60
Short Percent Of Float0.61%
Float Shares2.91B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day12.72M
Shares Short Prior Month18.92M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month11.64M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.33%
Please see JP Morgan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running JP Morgan Chase price analysis, check to measure JP Morgan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JP Morgan is operating at the current time. Most of JP Morgan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JP Morgan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JP Morgan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JP Morgan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JP Morgan's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JP Morgan. If investors know JP Morgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JP Morgan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of JP Morgan Chase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JP Morgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JP Morgan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JP Morgan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JP Morgan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JP Morgan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JP Morgan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JP Morgan value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JP Morgan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.