Fortinet Stock Future Price Prediction

FTNT
 Stock
  

USD 53.74  0.15  0.28%   

Fortinet stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Fortinet shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Fortinet's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fortinet and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fortinet's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fortinet, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Fortinet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Fortinet based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Fortinet stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fortinet over a specific investment horizon.Using Fortinet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fortinet from the perspective of Fortinet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fortinet using Fortinet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fortinet using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fortinet's stock price.

Fortinet Implied Volatility

    
  42.92  
Fortinet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fortinet stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fortinet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fortinet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fortinet's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Fortinet. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fortinet to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fortinet because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Fortinet after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 53.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fortinet contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fortinet will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.68% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Fortinet trading at $53.74, that is roughly $1.44. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fortinet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fortinet options at the current volatility level of 42.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fortinet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fortinet in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
48.37127.03130.24
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
180.00346.05425.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fortinet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fortinet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fortinet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fortinet.

Fortinet After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fortinet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fortinet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fortinet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fortinet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fortinet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fortinet's historical news coverage. Fortinet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.25 and 56.67, respectively. We have considered Fortinet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 53.74
53.46
After-hype Price
56.67
Upside
Fortinet is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fortinet is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fortinet Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Fortinet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fortinet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fortinet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19  3.21   0.31    0.13  9 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
53.7453.460.52 
194.55  

Fortinet Hype Timeline

Fortinet is currently traded for 53.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.31 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Fortinet is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 53.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 194.55%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.52% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Fortinet is about 487.42% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 53.61. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.79. Fortinet had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days.
Please check Fortinet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fortinet Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fortinet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fortinet's future price movements. Getting to know how Fortinet rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fortinet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Fortinet Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fortinet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fortinet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fortinet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Fortinet Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Fortinet stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fortinet, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fortinet based on analysis of Fortinet hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fortinet's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fortinet's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Fortinet

The number of cover stories for Fortinet depends on current market conditions and Fortinet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fortinet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fortinet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Fortinet Short Properties

Fortinet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fortinet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fortinet often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fortinet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortinet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.43%
Short Percent Of Float1.76%
Float Shares681.62M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.11M
Shares Short Prior Month11.89M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.32M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please check Fortinet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Fortinet price analysis, check to measure Fortinet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fortinet is operating at the current time. Most of Fortinet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fortinet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fortinet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fortinet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Is Fortinet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortinet. If investors know Fortinet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortinet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fortinet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortinet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortinet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortinet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortinet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortinet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortinet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fortinet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortinet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.