Etsy Stock Future Price Prediction

ETSY
 Stock
  

USD 79.55  6.34  8.66%   

Etsy Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Etsy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Etsy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Etsy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Etsy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Etsy Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Etsy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
Refresh
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Etsy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Etsy stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Etsy over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.4
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.42
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.26
Wall Street Target Price
136.84
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.6
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.052
Using Etsy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Etsy Inc from the perspective of Etsy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Etsy using Etsy's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Etsy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Etsy's stock price.
Etsy Revenue to Assets are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Etsy reported Revenue to Assets of 0.61 in 2021. Total Assets Per Share is likely to rise to 32.55 in 2022, whereas Calculated Tax Rate is likely to drop (4.75)  in 2022.

Etsy Implied Volatility

    
  121.38  
Etsy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Etsy Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Etsy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Etsy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Etsy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Etsy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Etsy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Etsy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Etsy after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 70.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Etsy in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
65.89119.79125.33
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
67.4873.0278.57
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
179.00260.65330.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.723.003.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Etsy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Etsy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Etsy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Etsy Inc.

Etsy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Etsy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Etsy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Etsy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Etsy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Etsy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Etsy's historical news coverage. Etsy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.29 and 76.37, respectively. We have considered Etsy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 79.55
70.83
After-hype Price
76.37
Upside
Etsy is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Etsy Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Etsy Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Etsy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Etsy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Etsy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.71  5.65   2.01    182.09  10 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
79.5570.833.25 
199.65  

Etsy Hype Timeline

Etsy Inc is currently traded for 79.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -182.09. Etsy is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 70.83. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 199.65%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -3.25% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.71%. The volatility of related hype on Etsy is about 2.2% with expected price after next announcement by competition of -102.54. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.73. Etsy Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Continue to Etsy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Etsy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Etsy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Etsy's future price movements. Getting to know how Etsy rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Etsy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2,308) 11 per month 0.00 (0.13)  4.39 (5.60)  18.71 
MMM3M Company(3.71) 9 per month 0.00 (0.0055)  2.17 (2.52)  8.68 
TRVThe Travelers Companies 0.18 9 per month 0.00  0.0349  2.01 (2.17)  6.41 
HDHome Depot 0.45 9 per month 0.00  0.004  2.92 (3.64)  8.63 
MCDMcDonalds Corp 5.67 11 per month 1.29  0.16  2.22 (1.98)  7.82 
PFEPfizer Inc(0.88) 11 per month 1.95  0.10  3.17 (3.16)  8.45 
AXPAmerican Express(1.59) 8 per month 0.00 (0.11)  3.46 (3.99)  9.75 
TATT Inc 0.29 8 per month 1.38  0.25  2.99 (2.47)  12.17 
CVXChevron Corp(0.41) 11 per month 0.00  0.0048  3.06 (4.60)  10.25 

Etsy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Etsy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Etsy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Etsy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Etsy Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Etsy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Etsy Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Etsy based on analysis of Etsy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Etsy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Etsy's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity2.061.493.84.09
Interest Coverage7.9812.1460.1164.86

Story Coverage note for Etsy

The number of cover stories for Etsy depends on current market conditions and Etsy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Etsy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Etsy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Etsy Short Properties

Etsy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Etsy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Etsy Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Etsy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etsy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out11.09%
Short Percent Of Float12.56%
Float Shares126.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.29M
Shares Short Prior Month11.1M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.91M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Continue to Etsy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Etsy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Etsy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Etsy Stock analysis

When running Etsy Inc price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.4
Market Capitalization
9.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.052
Return On Assets
0.0875
Return On Equity
0.64
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Etsy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.