CommVault Stock Future Price Prediction

CVLT
 Stock
  

USD 65.09  0.50  0.76%   

CommVault Systems stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of CommVault Systems shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of CommVault Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CommVault Systems and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CommVault Systems' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CommVault Systems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to CommVault Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of CommVault Systems based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The CommVault stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on CommVault Systems over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.643
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.7
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.41
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.78
Wall Street Target Price
68.6
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.5
Using CommVault Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CommVault Systems from the perspective of CommVault Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CommVault Systems using CommVault Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CommVault using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CommVault Systems' stock price.
CommVault Systems Quick Ratio is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. CommVault Systems reported Quick Ratio of 1.15 in 2021. Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets is likely to gain to 11.32 in 2022, whereas Total Assets Per Share are likely to drop 15.98 in 2022.

CommVault Systems Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in CommVault Systems' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CommVault. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CommVault Systems stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long CommVault Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CommVault Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge CommVault Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
60.4957
Short Percent
0.0249
Short Ratio
2.82
Shares Short Prior Month
1.1 M
50 Day MA
60.2636
Shares Short
855.2 K

CommVault Systems Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to CommVault Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in CommVault. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CommVault can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CommVault Systems. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CommVault Systems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CommVault Systems.

CommVault Systems Implied Volatility

    
  47.76  
CommVault Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CommVault Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CommVault Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CommVault Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when CommVault Systems' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in CommVault Systems. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CommVault Systems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CommVault because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

CommVault Systems after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 65.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CommVault contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CommVault Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.98% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With CommVault Systems trading at USD65.09, that is roughly USD1.94. If you think that the market is fully incorporating CommVault Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring CommVault Systems options at the current volatility level of 47.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CommVault Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CommVault Systems in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.5876.1377.87
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
64.0078.8085.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.730.790.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CommVault Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CommVault Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CommVault Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CommVault Systems.

CommVault Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CommVault Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CommVault Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CommVault Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CommVault Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CommVault Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CommVault Systems' historical news coverage. CommVault Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.73 and 67.21, respectively. We have considered CommVault Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 65.09
65.47
After-hype Price
67.21
Upside
CommVault Systems is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CommVault Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.

CommVault Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as CommVault Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CommVault Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CommVault Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.37  1.74  0.38   0.17  5 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.0965.470.58 
167.31  

CommVault Systems Hype Timeline

CommVault Systems is currently traded for 65.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. CommVault is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 65.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 167.31%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.58% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on CommVault Systems is about 371.79% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 65.26. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 769.59 M. Net Income was 33.62 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 614.1 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 5 days.
Continue to CommVault Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

CommVault Systems Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CommVault Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CommVault Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how CommVault Systems rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CommVault Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

CommVault Systems Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine CommVault price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CommVault using various technical indicators. When you analyze CommVault charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About CommVault Systems Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of CommVault Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CommVault Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CommVault Systems based on analysis of CommVault Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CommVault Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CommVault Systems's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables Turnover4.134.324.035.01
PPandE Turnover5.646.377.027.2

Story Coverage note for CommVault Systems

The number of cover stories for CommVault Systems depends on current market conditions and CommVault Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CommVault Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CommVault Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

CommVault Systems Short Properties

CommVault Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when CommVault Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CommVault Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CommVault Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CommVault Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding47220000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments267507000.00
Continue to CommVault Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running CommVault Systems price analysis, check to measure CommVault Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CommVault Systems is operating at the current time. Most of CommVault Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CommVault Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CommVault Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CommVault Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Go
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Go
Is CommVault Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CommVault Systems. If investors know CommVault will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CommVault Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.643
Market Capitalization
2.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0312
Return On Equity
0.0921
The market value of CommVault Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CommVault that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CommVault Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CommVault Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CommVault Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CommVault Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CommVault Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CommVault Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CommVault Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.