China OTC Stock Future Price Prediction

CIHHF
 Stock
  

USD 5.30  0.00  0.00%   

China Merchants Bank stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of China Merchants shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of China Merchants' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of China Merchants and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from China Merchants' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with China Merchants Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to China Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of China Merchants based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The China stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on China Merchants over a specific investment horizon.Using China Merchants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Merchants Bank from the perspective of China Merchants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in China Merchants. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Merchants to buy its otc stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell otc stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

China Merchants after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 5.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Merchants in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.655.527.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.615.487.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.305.305.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Merchants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Merchants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Merchants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Merchants Bank.

China Merchants After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of China Merchants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Merchants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of China Merchants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

China Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting China Merchants' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Merchants' historical news coverage. China Merchants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.43 and 7.17, respectively. We have considered China Merchants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 5.30
5.30
After-hype Price
7.17
Upside
China Merchants is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Merchants Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.

China Merchants OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as China Merchants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Merchants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Merchants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30  1.87  0.00    0.80  4 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.305.300.00 
0.00  

China Merchants Hype Timeline

China Merchants Bank is currently traded for 5.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.8. China forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of insignificant. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to China Merchants is about 69.78%. The volatility of related hype on China Merchants is about 69.78% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 4.5. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.19. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. China Merchants Bank last dividend was issued on the 7th of July 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Continue to China Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

China Merchants Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to China Merchants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Merchants' future price movements. Getting to know how China Merchants rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Merchants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

China Merchants Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About China Merchants Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of China Merchants stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Merchants Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Merchants based on analysis of China Merchants hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Merchants's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Merchants's related companies.

Story Coverage note for China Merchants

The number of cover stories for China Merchants depends on current market conditions and China Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

China Merchants Short Properties

China Merchants' future price predictability will typically decrease when China Merchants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Merchants Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.25
Float Shares13.63B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day750
Average Daily Volume In Three Month874
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield23.64%
Continue to China Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Merchants Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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Is China Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Merchants. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of China Merchants Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Merchants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.