Bellus Stock Future Price Prediction

BLU
 Stock
  

USD 10.34  0.41  3.81%   

Bellus Health stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Bellus Health shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Bellus Health's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bellus Health and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bellus Health's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bellus Health, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Bellus Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Bellus Health based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Bellus stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Bellus Health over a specific investment horizon.Using Bellus Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bellus Health from the perspective of Bellus Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bellus Health using Bellus Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bellus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bellus Health's stock price.

Bellus Health Implied Volatility

    
  42.29  
Bellus Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bellus Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bellus Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bellus Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bellus Health's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Bellus Health. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Bellus Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Bellus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Bellus Health after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 10.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bellus Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bellus Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.8812.0616.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.0210.2014.38
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.5013.6920.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.7510.8211.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bellus Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bellus Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bellus Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bellus Health.

Bellus Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bellus Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bellus Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bellus Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bellus Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bellus Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bellus Health's historical news coverage. Bellus Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.21 and 14.57, respectively. We have considered Bellus Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 10.34
10.39
After-hype Price
14.57
Upside
Bellus Health is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bellus Health is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bellus Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Bellus Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bellus Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bellus Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.27  4.18   0.02   0.04  6 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.3410.390.19 
4,644  

Bellus Health Hype Timeline

On the 29th of September Bellus Health is traded for 10.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Bellus is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 10.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.19% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Bellus Health is about 3135.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.38. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Bellus Health was currently reported as 2.47. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.81. Bellus Health had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had a split on the 19th of August 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 6 days.
Continue to Bellus Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Bellus Health Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bellus Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bellus Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Bellus Health rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bellus Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Bellus Health Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bellus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bellus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bellus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Bellus Health Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Bellus Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Bellus Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Bellus Health based on analysis of Bellus Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Bellus Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Bellus Health's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Bellus Health

The number of cover stories for Bellus Health depends on current market conditions and Bellus Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bellus Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bellus Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Bellus Health Short Properties

Bellus Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bellus Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bellus Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bellus Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bellus Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out9.83%
Float Shares95.73M
Shares Short Prior Month13.4M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day689.6k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.03M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Continue to Bellus Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Bellus Health price analysis, check to measure Bellus Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bellus Health is operating at the current time. Most of Bellus Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bellus Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bellus Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bellus Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bellus Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bellus Health. If investors know Bellus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bellus Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bellus Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bellus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bellus Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bellus Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bellus Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bellus Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bellus Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bellus Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bellus Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.