American Stock Future Price Prediction

AXP
 Stock
  

USD 145.46  5.44  3.89%   

American Express stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Express shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Express' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Express and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Express' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Express, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Express based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Express over a specific investment horizon.Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Express using American Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Express' stock price.

American Express Implied Volatility

    
  57.45  
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Express. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Express after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 145.57  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.59% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With American Express trading at $145.46, that is roughly $5.22. If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Express options at the current volatility level of 57.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Express in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
130.91169.35171.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
133.58135.52137.45
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
151.00190.75233.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
139.53156.00172.47
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Express.

American Express After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 143.64 and 147.50, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 145.46
143.64
Downside
145.57
After-hype Price
147.50
Upside
American Express is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Express Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.10  1.93  0.11    0.15  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
145.46145.570.08 
172.32  

American Express Hype Timeline

On the 4th of October American Express is traded for 145.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 145.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 172.32%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.08% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 130.41% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 145.31. The company reported the last year's revenue of 47.96 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 7.46 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 30.8 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Express Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PYPLPaypal Holdings(1.48) 7 per month 2.24  0.15  6.27 (3.86)  16.33 

American Express Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Express Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Express based on analysis of American Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Express's related companies.

Story Coverage note for American Express

The number of cover stories for American Express depends on current market conditions and American Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Express Short Properties

American Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.11%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.72
Short Percent Of Float1.39%
Float Shares597.01M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.38M
Shares Short Prior Month9.06M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.11M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.25%
Please continue to American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running American Express price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Express value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.