AmerisourceBergen Stock Future Price Prediction

ABC
 Stock
  

USD 170.29  0.97  0.57%   

AmerisourceBergen stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AmerisourceBergen shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AmerisourceBergen's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AmerisourceBergen and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AmerisourceBergen's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AmerisourceBergen, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to AmerisourceBergen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AmerisourceBergen based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AmerisourceBergen stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AmerisourceBergen over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.32) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.72
EPS Estimate Current Year
11
EPS Estimate Next Year
11.45
Wall Street Target Price
177.25
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.57
Using AmerisourceBergen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AmerisourceBergen from the perspective of AmerisourceBergen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AmerisourceBergen using AmerisourceBergen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AmerisourceBergen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AmerisourceBergen's stock price.
AmerisourceBergen Interest Coverage is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 11.23. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 27.75, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 13.92.

AmerisourceBergen Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in AmerisourceBergen's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AmerisourceBergen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AmerisourceBergen stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AmerisourceBergen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AmerisourceBergen and may potentially protect profits, hedge AmerisourceBergen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
149.4754
Short Percent
0.0402
Short Ratio
3.15
Shares Short Prior Month
5.5 M
50 Day MA
152.3546
Shares Short
5.7 M

AmerisourceBergen Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to AmerisourceBergen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in AmerisourceBergen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AmerisourceBergen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AmerisourceBergen. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AmerisourceBergen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AmerisourceBergen.

AmerisourceBergen Implied Volatility

    
  50.4  
AmerisourceBergen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AmerisourceBergen stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AmerisourceBergen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AmerisourceBergen stock will not fluctuate a lot when AmerisourceBergen's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AmerisourceBergen. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AmerisourceBergen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AmerisourceBergen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AmerisourceBergen after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 170.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AmerisourceBergen contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AmerisourceBergen will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.15% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With AmerisourceBergen trading at USD170.29, that is roughly USD5.36. If you think that the market is fully incorporating AmerisourceBergen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AmerisourceBergen options at the current volatility level of 50.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AmerisourceBergen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AmerisourceBergen in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
165.79167.36187.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
175.41176.98178.55
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
114.00143.11161.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
10.6210.6810.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AmerisourceBergen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AmerisourceBergen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AmerisourceBergen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AmerisourceBergen.

AmerisourceBergen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AmerisourceBergen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AmerisourceBergen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AmerisourceBergen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AmerisourceBergen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AmerisourceBergen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AmerisourceBergen's historical news coverage. AmerisourceBergen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 168.73 and 171.87, respectively. We have considered AmerisourceBergen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 170.29
168.73
Downside
170.30
After-hype Price
171.87
Upside
AmerisourceBergen is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AmerisourceBergen is based on 3 months time horizon.

AmerisourceBergen Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as AmerisourceBergen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AmerisourceBergen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AmerisourceBergen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.25  1.58  0.02   0.05  7 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
170.29170.300.01 
2,633  

AmerisourceBergen Hype Timeline

On the 8th of December AmerisourceBergen is traded for 170.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. AmerisourceBergen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 170.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.01% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on AmerisourceBergen is about 821.97% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 170.34. The company reported the last year's revenue of 238.59 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.67 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.33 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to AmerisourceBergen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AmerisourceBergen Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AmerisourceBergen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AmerisourceBergen's future price movements. Getting to know how AmerisourceBergen rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AmerisourceBergen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DISWalt Disney 0.25 7 per month 0.00 (0.11)  4.28 (3.79)  17.60 
CATCaterpillar(5.20) 8 per month 1.43  0.14  4.36 (2.70)  9.57 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.76) 9 per month 4.21 (0.0012)  7.74 (7.61)  20.15 
BAThe Boeing 7.96 9 per month 3.15  0.06  4.65 (5.37)  14.69 
MMM3M Company(2.77) 8 per month 1.38  0.0418  3.38 (3.04)  8.28 
TRVThe Travelers Companies 2.37 8 per month 1.24  0.11  2.80 (2.03)  6.50 
HDHome Depot(0.92) 8 per month 1.88  0.048  2.81 (2.50)  11.25 
KOCoca-Cola Co 0.26 7 per month 1.18  0.0056  2.40 (1.60)  5.09 
IBMInternational Business Machines 0.54 8 per month 1.06  0.12  2.79 (2.32)  6.45 

AmerisourceBergen Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AmerisourceBergen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AmerisourceBergen using various technical indicators. When you analyze AmerisourceBergen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AmerisourceBergen Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AmerisourceBergen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AmerisourceBergen, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AmerisourceBergen based on analysis of AmerisourceBergen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AmerisourceBergen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AmerisourceBergen's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.5128.5825.7227.75
Interest Coverage7.0513.5211.2312.12

Story Coverage note for AmerisourceBergen

The number of cover stories for AmerisourceBergen depends on current market conditions and AmerisourceBergen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AmerisourceBergen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AmerisourceBergen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AmerisourceBergen Short Properties

AmerisourceBergen's future price predictability will typically decrease when AmerisourceBergen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AmerisourceBergen often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AmerisourceBergen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmerisourceBergen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding211210000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments3388189000.00
Please continue to AmerisourceBergen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AmerisourceBergen information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AmerisourceBergen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for AmerisourceBergen Stock analysis

When running AmerisourceBergen price analysis, check to measure AmerisourceBergen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmerisourceBergen is operating at the current time. Most of AmerisourceBergen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmerisourceBergen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmerisourceBergen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmerisourceBergen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Is AmerisourceBergen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AmerisourceBergen. If investors know AmerisourceBergen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AmerisourceBergen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.32) 
Market Capitalization
34.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.0306
Return On Equity
28.8 K
The market value of AmerisourceBergen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AmerisourceBergen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AmerisourceBergen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AmerisourceBergen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AmerisourceBergen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AmerisourceBergen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AmerisourceBergen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AmerisourceBergen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AmerisourceBergen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.