Aaon Stock Future Price Prediction

AAON
 Stock
  

USD 78.56  3.08  4.08%   

Aaon Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aaon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aaon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aaon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aaon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aaon Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Aaon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aaon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aaon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aaon over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.76
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.53
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.7
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.44
Wall Street Target Price
75.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.42
Using Aaon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aaon Inc from the perspective of Aaon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aaon using Aaon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aaon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aaon's stock price.
Aaon Operating Margin is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Operating Margin is estimated at 13.52. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to rise to 13.40 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 8.14.

Aaon Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Aaon's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Aaon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Aaon stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Aaon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aaon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aaon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
57.32
Short Percent
0.0178
Short Ratio
3.38
Shares Short Prior Month
893.6 K
50 Day MA
63.13
Shares Short
666.1 K

Aaon Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Aaon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Aaon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aaon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aaon Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aaon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aaon.

Aaon Implied Volatility

    
  34.85  
Aaon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aaon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aaon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aaon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aaon's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aaon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aaon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aaon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Aaon after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 76.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aaon contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aaon Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.18% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Aaon trading at $78.56, that is roughly $1.71. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aaon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aaon Inc options at the current volatility level of 34.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aaon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aaon in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
74.2077.0479.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
70.2273.0675.91
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0070.0070.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.251.251.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aaon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aaon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aaon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aaon Inc.

Aaon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aaon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aaon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aaon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aaon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aaon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aaon's historical news coverage. Aaon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.68 and 79.36, respectively. We have considered Aaon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 78.56
76.52
After-hype Price
79.36
Upside
Aaon is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aaon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aaon Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Aaon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aaon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aaon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.49  2.88  0.34    0.12  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
78.5676.521.38 
417.39  

Aaon Hype Timeline

Aaon Inc is presently traded for 78.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Aaon is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 76.52 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 1.38% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Aaon is about 1136.84% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 78.44. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 666.44 M. Net Income was 55.77 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 137.83 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to Aaon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Aaon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aaon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aaon's future price movements. Getting to know how Aaon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aaon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Aaon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aaon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aaon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aaon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Aaon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Aaon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aaon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aaon based on analysis of Aaon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aaon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aaon's related companies.
 2010 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.08580.07720.0767
Interest Coverage133.92472.04387.05

Story Coverage note for Aaon

The number of cover stories for Aaon depends on current market conditions and Aaon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aaon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aaon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aaon Short Properties

Aaon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aaon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aaon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aaon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aaon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.67%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.38
Short Percent Of Float2.38%
Float Shares42.15M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day173.85k
Shares Short Prior Month956.93k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month161.46k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.48%
Please continue to Aaon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Aaon Inc price analysis, check to measure Aaon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aaon is operating at the current time. Most of Aaon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aaon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aaon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aaon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Is Aaon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aaon. If investors know Aaon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aaon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.76
Market Capitalization
4.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.75
Return On Assets
0.0829
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Aaon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aaon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aaon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aaon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aaon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aaon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aaon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aaon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aaon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.