Alcoa Stock Future Price Prediction

AA
 Stock
  

USD 46.52  3.87  7.68%   

Alcoa Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alcoa Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alcoa Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alcoa Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alcoa stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa Corp over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.81
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.31
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.02
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.65
Wall Street Target Price
48.18
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.19
Using Alcoa Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corp from the perspective of Alcoa Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alcoa Corp using Alcoa Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alcoa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alcoa Corp's stock price.
Alcoa Corp Interest Coverage is projected to slightly grow based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 4.67. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 17.36, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is forecasted to decline to 0.33.

Alcoa Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Alcoa Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alcoa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alcoa Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Alcoa Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alcoa Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alcoa Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
56.91
Short Percent
0.0674
Short Ratio
1.24
Shares Short Prior Month
8.1 M
50 Day MA
41.88
Shares Short
10.6 M

Alcoa Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Alcoa Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Alcoa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcoa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcoa Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alcoa Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility

    
  74.98  
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alcoa Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alcoa Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alcoa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alcoa Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.51  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alcoa contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alcoa Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.69% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Alcoa Corp trading at USD46.52, that is roughly USD2.18. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alcoa Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alcoa Corp options at the current volatility level of 74.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.8049.6254.44
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
52.0061.6275.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
6.066.266.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alcoa Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcoa Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alcoa Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alcoa Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alcoa Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcoa Corp's historical news coverage. Alcoa Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.69 and 51.33, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 46.52
46.51
After-hype Price
51.33
Upside
Alcoa Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcoa Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.08  4.86   0.01   0.04  10 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
46.5246.510.02 
3,738  

Alcoa Corp Hype Timeline

As of December 6, 2022 Alcoa Corp is listed for 46.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Alcoa is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 46.51. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.02% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa Corp is about 942.67% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 46.56. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alcoa Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.14. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2022. The firm had 1000:801 split on the 1st of November 2016. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alcoa Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcoa Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcoa Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcoa Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BACBank Of America(0.95) 1 per month 1.82 (0.0026)  4.14 (2.89)  9.00 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp 2.55 9 per month 1.81  0.07  3.65 (2.91)  9.75 
CVXChevron Corp(0.89) 10 per month 1.91  0.07  3.37 (2.91)  9.61 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.42 8 per month 1.32  0.0441  3.23 (1.96)  6.31 
MSFTMicrosoft 6.70 9 per month 0.00 (0.0412)  3.92 (3.54)  11.64 
MMM3M Company(3.60) 7 per month 1.74 (0.0301)  3.38 (3.23)  8.28 
DDDupont De Nemours(0.51) 9 per month 1.47  0.14  3.91 (2.34)  10.00 
INTCIntel 1.34 8 per month 0.00 (0.05)  4.33 (3.46)  14.49 
VZVerizon Communications(0.42) 6 per month 0.00 (0.14)  2.21 (2.62)  7.59 

Alcoa Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alcoa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcoa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcoa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alcoa Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alcoa Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on analysis of Alcoa Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alcoa Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alcoa Corp's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.330.440.37
Interest Coverage14.021.394.67

Story Coverage note for Alcoa Corp

The number of cover stories for Alcoa Corp depends on current market conditions and Alcoa Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcoa Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcoa Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alcoa Corp Short Properties

Alcoa Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcoa Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcoa Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding189907737.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1814000000.00
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.81
Market Capitalization
8.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.08) 
Return On Assets
0.0996
Return On Equity
0.0144
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.