National Vision Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EYE
 Stock
  

USD 27.50  1.08  3.78%   

National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Vision historical stock prices and determine the direction of National Vision Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of National Vision historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although National Vision naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of National Vision Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Vision fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections.
  
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National Vision Accounts Payable Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Accounts Payable Turnover was at 32.28. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 25.65, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.91. . As of July 1, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 72.6 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 80.6 M.
Most investors in National Vision cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the National Vision's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets National Vision's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for National Vision is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of National Vision Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

National Vision Holdings Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to National Vision's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Vision Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
National Vision's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for National Vision's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average National Vision's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on National Vision.

National Vision Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Vision Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 27.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52, mean absolute percentage error of 4.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.76. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Vision's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Vision Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest National VisionNational Vision Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

National Vision Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Vision's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Vision's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.61 and 32.33, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 27.50
27.47
Expected Value
32.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Vision stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Vision stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5918
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5206
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0508
SAESum of the absolute errors92.7576
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of National Vision Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict National Vision. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for National Vision

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Vision Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.8827.7432.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.7534.5939.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25.2927.7530.20
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0060.2570.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for National Vision

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Vision's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Vision's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Vision stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Vision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Vision by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

National Vision Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Vision's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Vision's current price.

National Vision Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Vision stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Vision shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Vision stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Vision Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Vision Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Vision's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Vision's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting National Vision stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

National Vision Investors Sentiment

The influence of National Vision's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in National. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Vision in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Vision's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Vision options trading.

Current Sentiment - EYE

National Vision Holdings Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on National Vision Holdings. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in National Vision Holdings? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with National Vision

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Vision position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Vision will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

National Vision Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Vision could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Vision when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Vision - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Vision Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of National Vision is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Vision moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Vision Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Vision can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.28
Market Capitalization
2.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.012
Return On Assets
0.0405
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.