Urban Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

URBN
 Stock
  

USD 22.49  0.71  3.06%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Urban Outfitters is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Urban Outfitters buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding URBN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Urban Outfitters' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Urban Outfitters' buy-and-hold perspective. Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Urban and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Urban Outfitters.

Execute Urban Outfitters Buy or Sell Advice

The Urban recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Urban Outfitters. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Urban Outfitters or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Urban Outfitters' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Urban OutfittersBuy Urban Outfitters
Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Urban Outfitters has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0415, Jensen Alpha of (0.018961), Total Risk Alpha of (0.16), Sortino Ratio of 0.0069 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0672
Our trade recommendation module complements current analysts and expert consensus on Urban Outfitters. It analyzes the company potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure Urban Outfitters is not overpriced, please validate all Urban Outfitters fundamentals, including its cash per share, beta, and the relationship between the revenue and cash flow from operations . Given that Urban Outfitters has a number of shares shorted of 11.84 M, we advise you to double-check Urban Outfitters market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Urban Outfitters Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Urban Outfitters has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Urban Outfitters has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 82.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.barchart.com: Unusual Options Activity 5 Calls That Grabbed My Attention This Week - Barchart

Urban Outfitters current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Urban analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Urban analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price23.46
Target Median Price24.00
Target High Price30.00
Recommendation Mean2.40
Number Of Analyst Opinions13
Target Low Price17.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Urban Outfitters Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Urban Outfitters' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Urban Outfitters' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Urban Outfitters stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Urban Outfitters price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Urban Outfitters returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Urban Outfitters.
Mean Return0.12Value At Risk-5.84
Potential Upside6.88Standard Deviation4.16
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Urban Outfitters historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Urban Outfitters Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(159.23 M)(118.02 M)(222.05 M)(10.42 M)(60.27 M)(65.02 M)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(121.38 M)(244.5 M)(186.15 M)(101.9 M)(487.66 M)(500.5 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations303.06 M446.62 M273.89 M285.81 M359.32 M395.37 M

Urban Outfitters Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Urban Outfitters or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Urban Outfitters' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Urban stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.02
β
Beta against DOW1.58
σ
Overall volatility
4.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.0064

Urban Outfitters Volatility Alert

Urban Outfitters shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Urban Outfitters further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Urban Outfitters future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Urban Outfitters' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Urban Outfitters' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Urban Outfitters Implied Volatility

Urban Outfitters' implied volatility" href="/stock-options/URBN/Urban-Outfitters">Urban Outfitters' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Urban Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Urban Outfitters' implied volatility" href="/stock-options/URBN/Urban-Outfitters">Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Urban Outfitters stock will not fluctuate a lot when Urban Outfitters' options" href="/stock-options/URBN/Urban-Outfitters">Urban Outfitters' options are near their expiration.

Urban Outfitters Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Urban Outfitters' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Urban Outfitters' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Urban Outfitters and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Urban Outfitters or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Urban Outfitters' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Urban Outfitters by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Urban Outfitters to competition
FundamentalsUrban OutfittersPeer Average
Return On Equity17.87 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset6.60 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin6.18 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin10.30 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation3.14 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding92.66 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders32.65 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions81.59 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted11.84 M4.71 M
Price to Earning7.44 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.29 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.46 X11.42 X
Revenue4.67 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.49 B27.38 B
EBITDA481.43 M3.9 B
Net Income288.6 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents259.2 M2.7 B
Cash per Share2.80 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.14 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.67 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.31 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share17.96 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations242.66 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.40 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.12 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth17.32 X4.89 X
Number of Employees9.66 K18.84 K
Beta1.41-0.15
Market Capitalization2.15 B19.03 B
Total Asset1.83 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings896.95 M9.33 B
Working Capital505.13 M1.48 B
Current Asset834.36 M9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by Mcdonald Wesley S of 00 shares of Urban Outfitters subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Urban Outfitters Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Urban . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution16203.77
Daily Balance Of Power(1.16)
Rate Of Daily Change0.97
Day Median Price22.64
Day Typical Price22.59
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator(0.50)

About Urban Outfitters Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Urban Outfitters? Buying financial instruments such as Urban Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables88.29 M89.95 M63.76 M59.68 M
Inventories409.53 M389.62 M569.7 M614.68 M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Urban Outfitters in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Office Supplies Thematic Idea Now

Office Supplies
Office Supplies Theme
Companies producing and selling office supplies, and accessories. The Office Supplies theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Office Supplies Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.39
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.066
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Urban Outfitters value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.