United Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

UPS
 Stock
  

USD 189.73  4.84  2.62%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding United Parcel Service is 'Buy'. Macroaxis provides United Parcel buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding UPS positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of United Parcel's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from United Parcel's buy-and-hold perspective. Also, please take a look at United Parcel Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as United and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards United Parcel Service.

Execute United Parcel Buy or Sell Advice

The United recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on United Parcel Service. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in United Parcel Service or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute United Parcel's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell United ParcelBuy United Parcel
Buy

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon United Parcel Service has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05), Jensen Alpha of (0.16), Total Risk Alpha of (0.19) and Treynor Ratio of (0.09)
Macroaxis provides recommendation on United Parcel Service to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on United Parcel Service. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure United Parcel Service is not overpriced, please validate all United Parcel fundamentals, including its price to sales, short ratio, five year return, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and total asset . Given that United Parcel Service has a price to earning of 14.87 X, we advise you to double-check United Parcel Service market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

United Parcel Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

United Parcel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kevin Warsh of 174 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3

United Parcel current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. United analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. United analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price192.67
Target Median Price195.50
Target High Price251.00
Recommendation Mean2.40
Number Of Analyst Opinions30
Target Low Price100.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

United Parcel Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of United Parcel's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of United Parcel's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of United Parcel stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use United Parcel Service price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of United Parcel returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for United Parcel.
Mean Return-0.08Value At Risk-3.44
Potential Upside2.84Standard Deviation1.94
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of United Parcel historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

United Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as United Parcel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Parcel Service backward and forwards among themselves. United Parcel's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase United Parcel's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares5.4 K866 K
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares5.3 K959 K
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon SharesK1.1 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon SharesK1.1 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon SharesK917 K
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon SharesK1.3 M
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares5.9 KM
Note, although United Parcel's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

United Parcel Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Net Cash Flow from Financing3.29 B(5.69 B)(1.73 B)(4.52 B)(6.82 B)(7.36 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(4.97 B)(6.33 B)(6.06 B)(5.28 B)(3.82 B)(4.12 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.48 B12.71 B8.64 B10.46 B15.01 B16.19 B

United Parcel Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to United Parcel or Industrials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that United Parcel's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a United stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.16
β
Beta against DOW1.03
σ
Overall volatility
2.00
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

United Parcel Volatility Alert

United Parcel Service exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.09 and kurtosis of 0.19. However, we advise investors to further study United Parcel Service technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure United Parcel's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact United Parcel's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

United Parcel Implied Volatility

United Parcel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Parcel Service stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Parcel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Parcel stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Parcel's options are near their expiration.

United Parcel Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing United Parcel's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze United Parcel's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between United Parcel and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as United Parcel or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of United Parcel's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Parcel by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare United Parcel to competition
FundamentalsUnited ParcelPeer Average
Return On Equity77.04 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset12.78 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin11.07 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin16.70 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation172.43 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding729.82 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.01 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions72.43 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted11.48 M4.71 M
Price to Earning14.87 X28.72 X
Price to Book9.67 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.62 X11.42 X
Revenue101.08 B9.43 B
Gross Profit23.59 B27.38 B
EBITDA16.88 B3.9 B
Net Income11.19 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents11.38 B2.7 B
Cash per Share13.15 X5.01 X
Total Debt23.88 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.41 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.39 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share19.62 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations14.02 B971.22 M
Short Ratio3.49 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share12.76 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.94 X4.89 X
Number of Employees500 K18.84 K
Beta1.09-0.15
Market Capitalization164.1 B19.03 B
Total Asset38.31 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings5.76 B9.33 B
Working Capital2.51 B1.48 B
Current Asset13.21 B9.34 B
   Acquisition by Kevin Warsh of 174 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

United Parcel Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as United . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About United Parcel Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell United Parcel Service? Buying financial instruments such as United Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable5.55 B6.46 B7.52 B8.12 B
Receivables9.55 B10.75 B12.54 B10 B

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Also, please take a look at United Parcel Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running United Parcel Service price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
Market Capitalization
155.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.77
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Parcel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.