Ulta Beauty Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation


USD 406.92  5.73  1.43%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your conservative attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Ulta Beauty is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Ulta Beauty buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ULTA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Ulta Beauty's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
The advice is provided from Ulta Beauty's buy-and-hold perspective. Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ulta Beauty and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Ulta Beauty.

Execute Ulta Beauty Buy or Sell Advice

The Ulta Beauty recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ulta Beauty. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ulta Beauty or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ulta Beauty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Ulta BeautyBuy Ulta Beauty



Hype Condition


Current Valuation


Odds of Distress


Economic Sensitivity


Analyst Consensus


Reporting Quality (M-Score)

For the selected time horizon Ulta Beauty has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.037, Jensen Alpha of 0.1432, Total Risk Alpha of 0.2299, Sortino Ratio of 0.0885 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0502
Macroaxis provides recommendation on Ulta Beauty to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Ulta Beauty. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Ulta Beauty is not overpriced, please validate all Ulta Beauty fundamentals, including its book value per share, total asset, and the relationship between the cash per share and price to earnings to growth . Given that Ulta Beauty has a price to earning of 126.72 X, we advise you to double-check Ulta Beauty market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Ulta Beauty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Ulta Beauty is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Marathon Petroleum, Albemarle, HF Sinclair, Ulta Beauty, and Carlisle Companies - Nasdaq

Ulta Beauty current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Ulta Beauty analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Ulta Beauty analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price457.70
Target Median Price475.00
Target High Price548.00
Recommendation Mean2.20
Number Of Analyst Opinions24
Target Low Price390.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Ulta Beauty Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Ulta Beauty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ulta Beauty stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ulta Beauty price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ulta Beauty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ulta Beauty.
Mean Return0.05Value At Risk-2.96
Potential Upside2.77Standard Deviation1.78
   Return Density   
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ulta Beauty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Ulta Beauty Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Ulta Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ulta Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Ulta Beauty's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Ulta Beauty's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares5.8 M2.2 B
Blackrock IncCommon Shares4.2 M1.6 B
State Street CorpCommon SharesM785.7 M
Wellington Management Group LlpCommon Shares1.4 M558 M
Alecta Tjanstepension OmsesidigtCommon Shares1.2 M455.1 M
Geode Capital Management LlcCommon SharesM402.6 M
Goldman Sachs Group IncCommon Shares940.5 K362.5 M
Citadel Advisors LlcCall Options787.5 K303.6 M
Citadel Advisors LlcPut Options700 K269.8 M
Note, although Ulta Beauty's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Ulta Beauty Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ulta Beauty or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ulta Beauty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ulta Beauty stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW0.84
Overall volatility
Information ratio 0.09

Ulta Beauty Volatility Alert

Ulta Beauty has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.31 and kurtosis of 0.39. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Ulta Beauty to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ulta Beauty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Ulta Beauty Implied Volatility

Ulta Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ulta Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ulta Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ulta Beauty's options are near their expiration.

Ulta Beauty Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Ulta Beauty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ulta Beauty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ulta Beauty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ulta Beauty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
 Better Than Average     
 Worse Than Average Compare Ulta Beauty to competition
FundamentalsUlta BeautyPeer Average
Return On Equity60.55 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset17.65 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin12.03 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin18.65 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation21.34 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding54.12 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders1.38 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions92.48 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted1.59 M4.71 M
Price to Earning126.72 X28.72 X
Price to Book11.09 X9.51 X
Price to Sales2.36 X11.42 X
Revenue9.04 B9.43 B
Gross Profit3.76 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.69 B3.9 B
Net Income1.09 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents654.49 M2.7 B
Cash per Share12.63 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.84 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity1.06 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.58 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share35.54 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations1.16 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.09 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.11 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.35 X4.89 X
Number of Employees16.5 K18.84 K
Market Capitalization21.33 B19.03 B
Total Asset2.23 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings659.92 M9.33 B
Working Capital978.95 M1.48 B
Current Asset1.38 B9.34 B
   Exercise or conversion by David Kimbell of 12436 shares of Ulta Beauty subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Ulta Beauty Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ulta Beauty . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Ulta Beauty Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Ulta Beauty? Buying financial instruments such as Ulta Beauty Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Ulta Beauty in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Financials Thematic Idea Now

Financials Theme
Companies that provide financial services to business or retail customers. The Financials theme has 20 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Financials Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Ulta Beauty price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta Beauty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta Beauty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ulta Beauty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.