Progressive Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

PGR
 Stock
  

USD 117.14  1.34  1.13%   

Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Progressive Corp is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Progressive Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding PGR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Progressive Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
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The advice is provided from Progressive Corp's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Progressive Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Progressive and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Progressive Corp.

Execute Progressive Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Progressive recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Progressive Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Progressive Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Progressive Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Progressive CorpBuy Progressive Corp
Strong Buy

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Progressive Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0163, Jensen Alpha of 0.176, Total Risk Alpha of 0.2671, Sortino Ratio of 0.1154 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0097
Macroaxis provides advice on Progressive Corp to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Progressive Corp. Our recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Progressive Corp is not overpriced, please check all Progressive Corp fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, five year return, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and beta . Given that Progressive Corp has a number of shares shorted of 6.37 M, we recommend you to check out Progressive Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your recent risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Progressive Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Progressive Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 6.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.37, which is OK given its current industry classification. Progressive Corp has a current ratio of 0.31, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Progressive Corp until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Progressive Corp's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Progressive Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Progressive to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Progressive Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Progressive Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 86.0% of Progressive Corp shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.fool.com: Progressives Investments Have Lost 1 Billion Should Investors Be Concerned - The Motley Fool

Progressive Corp current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Progressive analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Progressive analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price111.43
Target Median Price114.50
Target High Price136.00
Recommendation Mean2.90
Number Of Analyst Opinions14
Target Low Price88.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Progressive Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Progressive Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the future uncertainty of Progressive Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Progressive Corp stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Progressive Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Progressive Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Progressive Corp stock.
Mean Return0.0183Value At Risk-2.77
Potential Upside3.02Standard Deviation1.88
 Return Density 
      Distribution 
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Progressive Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Progressive Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(120.1 M)(208.8 M)(140.4 M)(256.6 M)(230.94 M)(237.02 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion150.5 M199.5 M236.1 M262.4 M301.76 M239.89 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents116 M2 M48.9 M(200.3 M)(180.27 M)(185.01 M)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(208.3 M)(192.5 M)(62 M)(75.7 M)(87.06 M)(93.93 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities342.3 M451.9 M156.5 M1.1 B1.26 B1.36 B
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(403.6 M)(519 M)(395.4 M)(654.9 M)(753.13 M)(812.59 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(300.9 M)846.7 M(1.77 B)(938.8 M)(4.52 B)(4.64 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(3.41 B)(7.33 B)(4.34 B)(6.12 B)(3.12 B)(3.37 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals(1.03 B)(2.32 B)(3.21 B)(6.79 B)(6.11 B)(6.27 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations3.76 B6.28 B6.26 B6.91 B7.76 B8.37 B
Share Based Compensation66.2 M85.2 M95.4 M77.2 M88.78 M83.8 M

Progressive Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Progressive Corp or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Progressive Corp stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Progressive stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.18
β
Beta against DOW0.86
σ
Overall volatility
1.89
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Progressive Corp Volatility Alert

Progressive Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.27 and kurtosis of 0.12. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Progressive Corp to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Progressive Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Progressive Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Progressive Corp Implied Volatility

Progressive Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Progressive Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Progressive Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Progressive Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Progressive Corp's options are near their expiration.

Progressive Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Progressive Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Progressive Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Progressive Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Progressive Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Progressive Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Progressive Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Progressive Corp to competition
FundamentalsProgressive CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity12.52 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset2.65 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin4.55 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin6.85 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation68.65 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding584.4 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.25 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions85.76 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted6.37 M4.71 M
Price to Earning16.90 X28.72 X
Price to Book3.77 X9.51 X
Price to Sales1.41 X11.42 X
Revenue48.07 B9.43 B
Gross Profit4.68 B27.38 B
EBITDA3.29 B3.9 B
Net Income2.16 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents529.9 M2.7 B
Cash per Share0.91 X5.01 X
Total Debt6.39 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.37 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.32 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share30.88 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations7.65 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.39 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share6.88 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth0.76 X4.89 X
Number of Employees49.08 K18.84 K
Beta0.48-0.15
Market Capitalization67.95 B19.03 B
Total Asset29.82 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings7.75 B9.33 B
Z Score7.08.72
Five Year Return2.46 %
   Sale by Daniel Mascaro of 558 shares of Progressive Corp [view details]

Progressive Corp Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Progressive . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution66007.2
Daily Balance Of Power(0.43)
Rate Of Daily Change0.99
Day Median Price116.34
Day Typical Price116.6
Market Facilitation Index0.0
Price Action Indicator0.13

About Progressive Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Progressive Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Progressive Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Although Progressive Corp investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Cash and Equivalents227.4 M76.5 M202.1 M202.1 M
Total Assets54.9 B64.1 B71.13 B76.75 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Progressive Corp in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Pharmaceutical Products
Pharmaceutical Products Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Pharmaceutical Products theme has 61 constituents.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Pharmaceutical Products Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please check Progressive Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.79
Market Capitalization
68.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.035
Return On Assets
0.0265
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Progressive Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.