Penn National Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

PENN
 Stock
  

USD 35.03  0.67  1.88%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Penn National Gaming is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Penn National buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding PENN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Penn National's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Penn National's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Penn National Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Penn National and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Penn National Gaming.

Execute Penn National Buy or Sell Advice

The Penn National recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Penn National Gaming. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Penn National Gaming or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Penn National's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Penn NationalBuy Penn National
Strong Buy

Volatility

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Hype Condition

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Current Valuation

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Odds of Distress

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Economic Sensitivity

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Analyst Consensus

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Financial Strenth (F Score)

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Financial Leverage

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Reporting Quality (M-Score)

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For the selected time horizon Penn National Gaming has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1076, Jensen Alpha of 0.0583, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0025, Sortino Ratio of 0.0345 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1319
Penn National advice module can be used to check and cross-verify current recommendation provided by analysts analyzing the firm's potential to grow using all of fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time. To make sure Penn National is not overpriced, please check all Penn National Gaming fundamentals, including its book value per share, retained earnings, and the relationship between the cash and equivalents and target price . Given that Penn National Gaming has a price to earning of 24.42 X, we recommend you to check out Penn National Gaming market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your recent risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Penn National Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Penn National Gaming has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: DraftKings downgraded as analyst cautions more risk to profitability - Yahoo Canada Finance

Penn National Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Penn National's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Penn National's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Penn National stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Penn National Gaming price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Penn National returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Penn National.
Mean Return0.23Value At Risk-5.17
Potential Upside4.94Standard Deviation3.29
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Penn National historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Penn National Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Penn National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penn National Gaming backward and forwards among themselves. Penn National's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Penn National's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zweigdimenna Associates LlcCommon Shares280 K4.7 M
Zweigdimenna Associates LlcCommon Shares903.4 K14.5 M
Zweigdimenna Associates LlcCommon Shares17.4 K249 K
Zweigdimenna Associates LlcCommon Shares189.5 K10 M
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares20.3 K557 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares20.3 K616 K
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich CantonalbankCommon Shares23.4 K995 K
Note, although Penn National's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Penn National Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(84.77 M)(100.9 M)487.5 M(202.3 M)(232.65 M)(251.01 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion271.21 M267.1 M269 M414.2 M476.33 M404.85 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(11.26 M)49.2 M201.8 M(26 M)(29.9 M)(32.26 M)
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals5.48 M(120 M)(1.93 B)(1.36 B)(1.22 B)(1.26 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares11.6 M(14.4 M)(42.6 M)(23 M)(20.7 M)(21.24 M)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities(349.47 M)(230 M)1.1 B(95.1 M)(109.36 M)(112.24 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(189.03 M)1.27 B(122.4 M)1.31 B339.9 M284.49 M
Net Cash Flow from Investing(221.61 M)(1.42 B)(607.5 M)(233.7 M)(1.22 B)(1.32 B)
Net Cash Flow from Operations459.08 M352.79 M703.9 M338.8 M896.1 M966.84 M
Share Based Compensation6.87 M7.8 M12 M14.9 M13.41 M14.35 M

Penn National Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Penn National or Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Penn National's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Penn National stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.06
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.65
σ
Overall volatility
3.28
Ir
Information ratio 0.0368

Penn National Volatility Alert

Penn National Gaming shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Penn National Gaming further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Penn National future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Penn National's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Penn National's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Penn National Implied Volatility

Penn National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penn National Gaming stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penn National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penn National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penn National's options are near their expiration.

Penn National Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Penn National's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Penn National's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Penn National and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Penn National or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Penn National's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Penn National by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Penn National to competition
FundamentalsPenn NationalPeer Average
Return On Equity0.07 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset0.0428 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin0.0386 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.18 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation16.63 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding155.12 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders0.68 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions85.61 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted11.6 M4.71 M
Price to Earning24.42 X28.72 X
Price to Book1.51 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.85 X11.42 X
Revenue5.91 B9.43 B
Gross Profit2.94 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.45 B3.9 B
Net Income420.8 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.71 B2.7 B
Cash per Share10.93 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.64 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity3.45 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.90 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share23.39 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations896 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.57 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.34 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth(15.89) X4.89 X
Target Price47.59
Number of Employees21.97 K18.84 K
Beta2.19-0.15
Market Capitalization5.43 B19.03 B
Total Asset16.87 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings174.36 M9.33 B
Working Capital(199.87 M)1.48 B
   Exercise or conversion by Rogers Christopher Byron of 4994 shares of Penn Entertainment subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Penn National Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Penn National . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Penn National Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Penn National Gaming? Buying financial instruments such as Penn National Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable40.3 M33.2 M53.3 M43.92 M
Receivables88.7 M96.4 M195 M210.39 M

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Please check Penn National Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is Penn National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.38
Market Capitalization
5.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0735
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Penn National value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.