Paychex Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

PAYX
 Stock
  

USD 123.21  0.05  0.0406%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Paychex is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Paychex buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Paychex positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Paychex's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Paychex's buy-and-hold perspective. Please check Paychex Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Paychex and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Paychex.

Execute Paychex Buy or Sell Advice

The Paychex recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Paychex. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Paychex or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Paychex's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell PaychexBuy Paychex
Strong Hold

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Financial Strenth (F Score)

Details

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Paychex has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), Jensen Alpha of (0.19), Total Risk Alpha of (0.20) and Treynor Ratio of (0.11)
Macroaxis provides advice on Paychex to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Paychex. Our recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Paychex is not overpriced, please check all Paychex fundamentals, including its cash flow from operations, and the relationship between the cash and equivalents and market capitalization . Given that Paychex has a price to earning of 30.62 X, we recommend you to check out Paychex market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your recent risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Paychex Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Paychex generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Paychex is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Paychex has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 23rd of November 2022 Paychex paid $ 0.79 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: With EPS Growth And More, Paychex Makes An Interesting Case - Yahoo Finance UK

Paychex current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Paychex analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Paychex analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price125.63
Target Median Price124.50
Target High Price140.00
Recommendation Mean2.90
Number Of Analyst Opinions16
Target Low Price112.21
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Paychex Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Paychex's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Paychex's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Paychex stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Paychex price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Paychex returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Paychex.
Mean Return-0.11Value At Risk-3.01
Potential Upside2.53Standard Deviation1.78
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Paychex historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Paychex Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Paychex is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Paychex backward and forwards among themselves. Paychex's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Paychex's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares3.1 K201 K
Zwj Investment Counsel IncCommon Shares2.9 K212 K
Zweigdimenna Associates LlcCommon Shares5.3 K245 K
Zweig Advisers LlcCommon Shares150 K8.9 M
Zweig Advisers LlcCommon Shares247 K13.3 M
Zweig Advisers LlcCommon Shares247 K13.1 M
Zurich Insurance Group LtdCommon Shares10.3 K1.2 M
Note, although Paychex's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Paychex Cash Flow Accounts

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(97.7 M)(94.3 M)(154 M)(123.8 M)(111.42 M)(120.22 M)
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion115.1 M126.9 M138 M181.5 M208.72 M176.1 M
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(38.5 M)(184.5 M)1.85 B(1.37 B)(1.57 B)(1.61 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(107.9 M)(166.2 M)(143.1 M)(56.9 M)(51.21 M)(55.25 M)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(606.5 M)(662.3 M)(739.7 M)(826.8 M)(744.12 M)(802.87 M)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(423.8 M)(1.01 B)(1.49 B)(636.4 M)(979.3 M)(1.06 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing(679 M)(1.63 B)771.9 M(460.6 M)(1.42 B)(1.46 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals339.7 M(559.3 M)1.37 B(507 M)(583.05 M)(598.39 M)
Net Cash Flow from Operations1.28 B1.27 B1.44 B1.26 B1.51 B1.22 B
Share Based Compensation34.6 M35.4 M44.6 M46.2 M53.13 M46.18 M

Paychex Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Paychex or Industrials sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Paychex's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Paychex stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.19
β
Beta against DOW1.10
σ
Overall volatility
1.74
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Paychex Volatility Alert

Paychex exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.26 and kurtosis of 0.68. However, we advise investors to further study Paychex technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Paychex's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Paychex's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Paychex Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Paychex's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Paychex's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Paychex and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Paychex or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Paychex's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paychex by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Paychex to competition
FundamentalsPaychexPeer Average
Return On Equity46.54 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset12.79 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin30.38 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin43.99 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation43.2 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding360.4 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders10.75 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions73.17 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted9.48 M4.71 M
Price to Earning30.62 X28.72 X
Price to Book13.96 X9.51 X
Price to Sales9.25 X11.42 X
Revenue4.74 B9.43 B
Gross Profit3.26 B27.38 B
EBITDA2.08 B3.9 B
Net Income1.44 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents1.23 B2.7 B
Cash per Share3.41 X5.01 X
Total Debt879.1 M5.32 B
Debt to Equity0.28 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.29 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share8.70 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations1.48 B971.22 M
Short Ratio5.41 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share3.97 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth2.01 X4.89 X
Number of Employees16 K18.84 K
Beta0.98-0.15
Market Capitalization43.81 B19.03 B
Total Asset6.44 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings1.44 B9.33 B
Working Capital497.7 M1.48 B
Current Asset4.86 B9.34 B
   Paychex exotic insider transaction detected [view details]

Paychex Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Paychex . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Paychex Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Paychex? Buying financial instruments such as Paychex Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Accounts Payable79.4 M89 M105.7 M114.04 M
Receivables790.3 M1.05 B1.32 B1.42 B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Paychex in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Long Short Thematic Idea Now

Long Short
Long Short Theme
Funds or Etfs that are designed to hedge away market risk by investing in combination of bonds, stocks, derivative instruments as well as short positions to maximize returns irrespective of market conditions. The Long Short theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Long Short Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Please check Paychex Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Paychex price analysis, check to measure Paychex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Paychex is operating at the current time. Most of Paychex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Paychex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Paychex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Paychex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Paychex's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paychex. If investors know Paychex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paychex listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.14
Market Capitalization
44.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.11
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.47
The market value of Paychex is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paychex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paychex's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paychex's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paychex's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paychex's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paychex's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Paychex value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paychex's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.