Murphy Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 270.09  7.39  2.66%   

Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Murphy USA is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Murphy USA buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding MUSA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Murphy USA's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
  
The advice is provided from Murphy USA's buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Murphy USA Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. We conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Murphy and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on selected investing horizon and risk tolerance towards Murphy USA.

Execute Murphy USA Buy or Sell Advice

The Murphy recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Murphy USA. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Murphy USA or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Murphy USA's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Murphy USABuy Murphy USA
Strong Buy

Volatility

Details

Hype Condition

Details

Current Valuation

Details

Odds of Distress

Details

Economic Sensitivity

Details

Analyst Consensus

Details

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Details
For the selected time horizon Murphy USA has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1551, Jensen Alpha of 0.3089, Total Risk Alpha of 0.3923, Sortino Ratio of 0.2221 and Treynor Ratio of 0.3252
Macroaxis provides trade recommendations on Murphy USA to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Murphy USA. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Murphy USA is not overpriced, please verify all Murphy USA fundamentals, including its price to sales, debt to equity, beta, as well as the relationship between the net income and short ratio . Given that Murphy USA has a price to earning of 21.71 X, we recommend you to check Murphy USA market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Murphy USA Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of September 2022 Murphy USA paid $ 0.32 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.investors.com: IBD 50 Mini-Mart Books Strong Earnings Growth Builds Third Base - Investors Business Daily

Murphy USA current analysts advice

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Murphy analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Murphy analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target Mean Price248.60
Target Median Price270.00
Target High Price300.00
Recommendation Mean2.70
Number Of Analyst Opinions5
Target Low Price176.00
Average Consensus Hold
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Murphy USA Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Murphy USA's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Murphy USA's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Murphy USA stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Murphy USA price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Murphy USA returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Murphy USA.
Mean Return0.25Value At Risk-2.24
Potential Upside3.88Standard Deviation1.87
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Murphy USA historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Murphy Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Murphy USA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy USA backward and forwards among themselves. Murphy USA's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Murphy USA's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Blackrock IncCommon Shares2.6 M598.6 M
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares2.2 M502.9 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors LpCommon Shares751 K174.9 M
State Street CorpCommon Shares750.1 K174.7 M
Jpmorgan Chase CoCommon Shares584.8 K136.2 M
Renaissance Technologies LlcCommon Shares557.5 K129.8 M
River Road Asset Management LlcCommon Shares506.4 K117.9 M
Note, although Murphy USA's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Murphy USA Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Murphy USA or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Murphy USA's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Murphy stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.31
β
Beta against DOW0.74
σ
Overall volatility
1.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.18

Murphy USA Volatility Alert

Murphy USA has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.17 and kurtosis of 3.13. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Murphy USA to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Murphy USA's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Murphy USA's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Murphy USA Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Murphy USA's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Murphy USA's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Murphy USA and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Murphy USA or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Murphy USA's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy USA by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Murphy USA to competition
FundamentalsMurphy USAPeer Average
Return On Equity72.14 %(0.31) %
Return On Asset12.21 %(0.14) %
Profit Margin2.87 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin5.34 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation8.66 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding25.63 M571.82 M
Shares Owned by Insiders8.52 %10.09 %
Shares Owned by Institutions89.87 %39.21 %
Number of Shares Shorted2.29 M4.71 M
Price to Earning21.71 X28.72 X
Price to Book9.17 X9.51 X
Price to Sales0.36 X11.42 X
Revenue19.14 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.06 B27.38 B
EBITDA1.02 B3.9 B
Net Income548.5 M570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents240.4 M2.7 B
Cash per Share10.30 X5.01 X
Total Debt2.26 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity2.97 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.03 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share28.99 X1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations923.1 M971.22 M
Short Ratio6.09 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share12.25 X3.12 X
Price to Earnings To Growth3.82 X4.89 X
Number of Employees6.25 K18.84 K
Beta0.83-0.15
Market Capitalization6.82 B19.03 B
Total Asset1.89 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings1.16 B9.33 B
Working Capital43.38 M1.48 B
Current Asset435.67 M9.34 B
   Acquisition by Bridges Jennifer of tradable shares of Murphy USA subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

About Murphy USA Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Murphy USA? Buying financial instruments such as Murphy Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Murphy USA in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Insurance Providers Thematic Idea Now

Insurance Providers
Insurance Providers Theme
Companies providing all types of insurance and insurance services. The Insurance Providers theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Insurance Providers Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additionally, see Murphy USA Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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Is Murphy USA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Murphy USA value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.